7. Decision Making

DEFINITION OF DECISION MAKING

DECISION-MAKING MODELS

Normative Decision Models Multiattribute utility theory

Normative Decision Models Expected value theory Subjective expected utility theory

Descriptive Decision Models Heuristics and biases – Satisficing Naturalistic DM

HEURISTICS AND BIASES

Info Processing Limits in DM

Heuristics and Biases in Receiving and Using Cues Attention to a limited number of cues Cue primacy and anchoring Inattention to later cues Cue salience Overweighting of unrealistic cues

Heuristics and Biases in Hypothesis Generation, Evaluation and Selection Generation of limited number of hypotheses Availability heuristic Representativeness Heuristic Overconfidence Cognitive tunneling Confirmation bias

Heuristics and Biases in Action Selection Retrieve a small number of actions Availability heuristic for actions Availability of possible outcomes Framing bias

DEPENDENCY OF DECISION MAKING ON THE DECISION CONTEXT

Skill-, Rule-, Knowledge-Based Behavior

Recognition-Primed Decision Making

FACTORS AFFECTIMG decision making performance: An integrated description of decision making

Improving human decision making

Decision-Support Systems Task Redesign Decision-Support Systems Decision Matrices and Trees Spreadsheets Simulation Expert Systems Displays Training