Unit II –Population and Migration

Where are the four major clusters of population concentrations? 2/3 of world pop in 4 regions: East Asia - 1/5 of world South Asia - 1/5 of world Southeast Asia - 500 million Europe - primarily urban

What is CBR and CDR? Crude Birth Rate – number of births in a country per 1,000 people Crude Death Rate – number of deaths in a country per 1,000 people

What is IMR,TFR, NIR? Infant mortality rate – death of infants under the age of 1 per 1000 live births Total fertility rate- Average number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49) Natural Increate Rate – difference between CBR and CDR indicate natural growth or decline within a population – would developing countries have increase or decrease?

What is doubling time? The number of years needed to double a population assuming there is a constant rate of natural increase 2000 years ago – world population estimated at 250 million Took 16 centuries to double to 500 million (1650) 1820 (170 years later) – population doubled to 1 billion 1930 – 2 billion POPULATION EXPLOSION! Why? 1975 – 4 billion

What is the carrying capacity? Number of people an area can support on a sustained basis Farmers using irrigation & fertilizers support more people Industrial societies import raw materials & export manufactured goods

What is the dependency ratio? Measures the economic impact of younger and older cohorts on the economically productive members of a population Age 15 and younger and age 64 and older

What factors affect the shape of population pyramids? Represents a population’s age & sex composition Factors affecting shape: Health care War Availability of birth control Cultural values Level of economic development

What are some theories of population growth? Thomas Malthus Food growing arithmetically vs. population growing exponentially Neo-Malthusians - Zero population growth movement - goal to level off world’s population growth to ensure earth can sustain its inhabitants Boserup- using technology to help feed the growing population

What are some natural hazards that impact population? Climate, drought, hurricanes, typhoons, tsunamis Malthus’ “negative checks” - famine and disease Globalization has increased spread of communicable diseases AIDS Asian bird flu Pandemic = widespread epidemic Swine flu

What are the stages of the Demographic Transition Model? Stage 1 - pre-industrial, agrarian societies High CBR and CDR Stage 2 - industrialization High CBR, lower CDR By mid19th century - epidemiological revolution Stage 3 - mature industrial economy CBR drops, CDR low Stage 4 - post-industrial economy CBR continues to fall and CDR low More women in workforce Children expensive Extensive education needed to fill post-industrial jobs Stage 5 – population growth is negative

What are some population policies? Expansive policies or pronatalist policies and - like Mao Zedong’s and Denmark Restrictive policies or antinatalist policies China - Deng Xiaoping One child policy Female infanticide India - democracy’s problems Family planning

Some International Policy Efforts 1994 International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo, Egypt - agreed that improving the status of women is essential to population control 1995 UN Fourth World Conference in Beijing, China - agreed that women needed to control fertility allowing them to take advantage of educational and employment opportunities

What are examples of population movement? Circulation = our short-term repetitive movements in our days Periodic movement – transhumance Migration = involves a permanent move to a new location, within a country or to another country Demographic equation = summarizes population change over time in an area by combining natural change (death rate subtracted from birth rate) and the net migration Emigration - migration FROM a location Immigration - migration TO a location

Short Term Circulation & Activity Space Activity Space - area in which an individual moves about as he or she pursues regular, day-to-day activities Factors affecting activity spaces: Age group - younger by foot/bicycle; older by car; retired activity space shrinks Ability to travel - suburbs vs. city; LDC vs. MDC; income level Opportunities to travel - self-sufficient families, poverty, & physical isolation reduce awareness space

Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration British demographer Wrote 11 migration laws Most immigrants move short distance Distance decay - decline of activity or function with increasing distance from point of origin Step migration - long-distance migration done in stages Intervening opportunities - those planning to go long distances find other opportunities before reaching final destination

Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration Migrants moving longer distances tend to choose cities as destinations Each migration flow produces a counter-flow; ex. When one group moves in to neighborhood, another group moves in Families less likely to make international moves; single males more likely

Reasons for Migration Push factor = encourages people to move Pull factor = attracts people to a region

Economic Push and Pull Factors Generally from poor economic opportunities to jobs available elsewhere USA & Canada = major destinations for economic migrants $ migrants send home to family = remittances Ex. Haitians in US & Canada & Caribbean sent home over $1 billion in remittances in 2007 (=30% of Haiti’s GDP) 2001 Haiti Census est. 1 in 5 households in Haiti receives foreign remittances 2007 – Mexican immigrants sent home $23.98 billion in remittances

Cultural Push and Pull Factors Political conditions can be pull factors – attraction to democratic countries from communist ones Fall of European communism 1989- 1991 ended the pull Forced international migration historically due to slavery and political instability Refugees = people who have been forced to migrate from their homes & cannot return for fear of persecution because of race, religion, nationality, membership in a social group, or political opinion 2007 – 14 million refugees

Environmental Push and Pull Factors Pull toward physically attractive regions (mountains, sea sides, warm climates) Push from hazardous ones: esp. water – too little or too much – most common environmental threat Many forced to move due to location on floodplain (area next to river subject to flooding during specific # of years based on historical trends) “100 year floodplain” = expect flooding on avg once a century too little water – people of Sahel being pushed off – pastoral nomads forced to move to cities

Countermigration: govts send back migrants caught entering countries illegally Ex. 1990s – US repatriated Haitian arrivals from Florida Ex. Afghanistan – 10 million Afghanis have left the country due to civil war, the Taliban, and current instability Have ended up primarily in Pakistan and Iran After Taliban took control in 1994, support for Pakistan waned and Pakistan govt forced repatriation of thousands of Afghans Since 9/11/01 – UNHCR has helped Pakistan and Iran repatriate 5 million refugees back into Afghanistan Currently 3 million Afghans are registered refugees in Iran and Pakistan (& 1 million unregistered in Pakistan)

Asylum When a refugee meets the official criteria her/she becomes eligible for assistance including possible asylum Asylum = right to protection in 1st country in which he/she arrives

What is IDP? Do not cross international borders Tend to be undercounted UNHCR est. 2007 – 26 million people are IDPs

Major Migrations at Different Scales Asia, Latin America and Africa have net out-migration North America. Europe, and Oceania jave net in-migration Largest flows are: Asia to Europe Asia to North America South America to North America

U.S. Immigration Patterns Three Main Eras: Initial settlement of colonies Emigration from Europe Immigration since 1945

Initial Settlement of Colonies About 1 million Europeans came before 1776 Another 1 million by 1840 Majority from Britain Others from Netherlands, Sweden, France, Germany, Iberian Peninsula 18th century - 400,000 African slaves brought over

Emigration from Europe 19th-20th century migration one of most significant in history 75 million departed for Americas between 1835-1935 Largest number to USA Three waves: 1840s-1850s - 2 largest groups Irish & Germans Late 1800s - 1870s-1890s - 75% NW Europe; Germans & Irish continued & Scandinavians; pull factor Industrial Revolution Early 1900s- peak levels 1910; many from Southern and Eastern Europe, esp. Italy, Russia, Austria-Hungary

Immigration since 1945 Restrictions against Asians lifted in 1960s: China, Philippines, India, Vietnam Many came as refugees Many went to Canada Another major source is Latin America with Mexico topping 8 million 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act - government issued visas to several hundred thousand people who had previously entered illegally

Intraregional Migrations Within USA, African-Americans began migrating from South to North during WWI and in the 1940s; 1970s countertrend of African Americans moving back South Dislocation due to ethnic strife, war, or natural disasters South Asia - Afghanistan - Pakistan Southeast Asia - Vietnam - Cambodia Balkans - collapse of Yugoslavia Sub-Saharan Africa - Rwanda, Sudan

Migration Selectivity =Tendency for certain types of people to move influenced by 1. Age - young people, 18-30 and their children 2. Education - higher levels of education more likely to migrate long distances; follow one’s career in professions; danger of brain drains 3. Kinship and friendship ties - chain migration; ethnic neighborhoods such as “Little Italies” and “Chinatowns”

1. Definition of demography 2. Arithmetic density, agricultural density, physiological density 3. Ecumene 4. Location and characteristics of major population clusters 5. Location and characteristics of emerging population clusters 6. Sparsely populated areas (location and characteristics) 7. Distribution of population within clusters 8. Overpopulation/carrying capacity 9. Challenges of highly-concentrated populations in certain areas of the world 10. Population pyramids 11. Spatial analysis 12. Dependency ratio 13. Relationship between population distribution and distribution of natural hazards 14. Difference between a natural hazard and natural disaster 15. The “J” curve 16. Demographic equation 17. Locations of high and low Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Crude Death Rate (CDR), and Natural Increase Rate (NIR) 18. Doubling time 19. Sex ratio

20. Reasons for rapid population growth due to industrialization and diffusion of modern medical practices 21. Thomas Malthus 22. Life expectancy 23. Demographic Transition Model (DTM) 24. Which country’s experience was the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) based on and why? 25. Anti-natalist policies (strategies to lower the Crude Birth Rate (CBR)) 26. Pro-natalist policies (strategies to increase the Crude Birth Rate (CBR)) 27. Zero Population Growth (ZPG) – replacement level 28. Role of economic development 29. Migration and Ravenstein’s Laws 30. Immigration vs. emigration 31. Cultural, economic, and environmental pushes and pulls 32. Recent trends in migration 33. Chain migration 34. Step migration 35. Intervening obstacles and opportunities 36. Wilbur Zelinsky’s Migration Transition Theory 37. Involuntary migration 38. Refugees 39. The Soviet experience (internal migration) 40. Interregional migration in Europe and the U.S. 41. Brain drain 42. Transhumance 43. Guest workers 44. Intraregional migration (rural to urban and urban to rural) 45. Counter-urbanization 46. Obstacles for immigrants 47. Activity space