2019 Market Outlook Slide 1: 2019 Market Outlook

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Presentation transcript:

2019 Market Outlook Slide 1: 2019 Market Outlook [Introduction to AE Wealth and brief personal intro] Investment Advisory Services offered through AE Wealth Management LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor located in Topeka, KS. 731292

The advisory firm presenting this content is an independent financial services firm and is not an affiliate company of AE Wealth Management, LLC. [Presenting Firm Investment Advisory Disclosure] Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of an individual’s situation. None of the information contained herein shall constitute an offer to sell or solicit any offer to buy a security or insurance product. Read to audience. Do not skip this slide

2018 Recap Strong start to 2018 after a year of very little volatility Conflict with North Korea heated up February brought 1000 pt drops in Dow & 12% loss in 2 weeks Markets made a comeback and saw 6 months of steadiness & strength The fall brought a return to volatility likely as a result of: Kavanaugh Supreme Court Hearings Midterm elections FANG stocks underperformed Trade War with China Government Shutdown Global Growth Slowed A good way to sum up 2018 is to quote Dickens: “It was the best of times; it was the worst of times.” We saw a strong start to 2018 after a year of little volatility However, conflict with North Korea began to heat up in early spring And February saw two 1,000-point drops in Dow & 12% loss in 2 weeks Markets came back, though, and we saw 6 months of steadiness and strength The fall saw a return to volatility, likely as a result of: Bitter Kavanaugh hearings Midterm elections Underperformance by FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google) stocks Trade war with China Government shutdown Global growth slowed 2018 also reinforced why fundamentals and discipline matter

2019 Outlook Economy stays strong NO recession Turmoil & Gridlock continue U.S. Equities: Anticipate +8 – 12% Volatility back to normal levels Bond Rates stay low Inflation remains tame Bond Yields rise modestly Now, let’s make some educated guesses about 2019: Economy stays strong – look for 3% GDP growth to continue Unemployment is low and there are no signs of recession Washington, DC, will be non-­‐stop source of political turmoil and gridlock – which Wall Street likes (since the more rancor, the less chance the current rules change!) With U.S. equities, look for a return of 8%-12% on S&P 500, as volatility moves back to normal levels Bond rates are expected to stay low With inflation in check, at worst, the Fed might possibly raise rates once in 2019 Bond yields will rise modestly

What Now? So, what now?

Get back to the basics! Focus on what you can control Stay disciplined Avoid Gimmicks MOST IMPORTANTLY – DIVERSIFY! It’s time to get back to the fundamentals in 2019: Focus on what you can control Stay disciplined Avoid gimmicks and don’t let emotions drive investment decisions Most importantly – DIVERSIFY! Harry Markowitz, the father of Modern Portfolio Theory, famously called diversification “the only free lunch in finance.” Consider enhancements to your allocation outside of stocks and mutual funds – and always keep reading and learning! Remember, stick with your plan, stay diversified, and rely on your trusted financial advisor to help get through the challenging times while staying on your path towards meeting your investment goals   Thank you. I would now be happy to take your questions.