Reflections on Regime Change Some Conclusions: Reflections on Regime Change

What have you learned? Numerous facets of how political systems operate: ‘Input’ factors: Parties Interest groups Civil society Political Culture Constitutions and political institutions Parliaments Political Executives Bureaucracy Policy-processes

Regime Change & How It Occurs Broader problematique: Transitions from authoritarianism to liberal democracies sometimes Because of internal factors, e.g. inability of regime to deliver what it has promised Internal revolt, overthrow Sometimes because of invasion and total defeat Postwar Germany Postwar Italy Postwar Japan

Imposing regime change: Possible in Germany, Japan & Italy because Occupier was in firm control Regimes in question were definitively defeated Political forces were strictly channeled Some prohibited or kept in opposition Postwar Italy and Japan as one-party dominant states Reconstructed regimes integrated into Broader alliances Western economies No other alternatives available or politically possible

Building and consolidating liberal democracy Requires Some minimal agreement on institutions, form of government – contingent consent Recognition that the new regime is “the only game in town” A political and economic situation in which key groups support or tolerate the new regime A civil society and political culture in which Citizens & groups feel that they can participate Differences and oppositions are tolerated The regime is regarded as legitimate

Will this fit post-invasion Iraq? Relatively educated population, but isolated Likely resentment against the US, west in Iraq, Arab countries, Muslim world Problems of a plural society – artificial construct Kurds, in the north Shia majority, in the south Inexperience… but possible tutelage Contingent consent, but among whom?

Problems: What incentives will there be to sustain democratic rule? What incentives or motives will make individuals or groups want to overturn Importance of context, especially what is happening in neighboring countries

Final exam Thursday, April 24th 9:00-11:00 A.M. SN2036