Demographic and Economic Trends In Colorado and Region 12 Elizabeth Garner State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs 2019 demography.dola.colorado.gov

Transitions to Watch Concentrated Growth Migration – attracting and retaining the right fit. Aging – labor force, income, housing, jobs, migration Changes to industries – booms, downturns, automation, retail, manufacturing, construction. Increasing racial and ethnic diversity. Slowing income growth Slowing growth – planning for the slowing and the growth

Big Picture – 2017-2018 Pop Change US – 327.2 million, + 2.02 million or .6% Colorado - 5,695,564 Ranked 7th fastest 1.4% - NV, ID, UT, AZ, FL, WA 8th in total growth 78,931 – TX, FL, CA, AZ, NC, WA, GA 7 Counties with declines in population Region 12 +139 US – least growth since 1974 and slowest growth rate since 1936 E,D,W,Adams,, Arapahoe, Douglas, Larimer, Jefferson, Boulder would be 9th at 2,078 Top 8 counties in absolute growth terms accounted for 83% of statewide growth. Throw in Boulder & Broomfield and you’re up to 87% of the statewide change occurring along the I-25 corridor between El Paso (Co Springs) and north to Larimer / Weld

29 negative growth 10-13 – 27 negative growth 10-14 – 22 negative growth 10-15 (14 lost pop in 2015) 19 with negative pop change 13-14 12 negative natural increase 12-13 9 negative natural increase 13-14 23 negative net migration 13-14 30 negative net migration 12-13

Since 1970, the state has grown by an average of 73,000 per year and 2018 ranks about 19th most growth in the 28 years since 1970. Since 2007, Net Migration has been the primary driver of our population growth. In 2007 Natural Increase accounted for 53% of our population growth. In 2018, about 1/3 of our increase was due to natural increase while net migration accounted for the other 2/3. Net migration is highly influenced by the economy. Jobs are people!

2015 – 66,300 births and 36,200 deaths to give a natural increase of 30,100 – slowest natural increase since 1995 2016 – a slight uptick of less than 300 in natural increase – numbers still yet to be finalized by CDPHE

Colorado Colorado has always done a great job in-migrating young adults. The success we had in the 70’s and 80’s is reflected by our large baby boom generation. Among the 727,935 population increase in 2000 to 2010, over 120,000 are in Weld & Larimer; translates to one out of every six new Coloradans counted in Weld or Larimer County

In Migration to Colorado In migration ave. 170,000-230,000 /yr. Out migration ave. 150,000-190,000 /yr. In Migrants are: Younger Lower Income Higher educational attainment than the Colorado average.

JOBS ARE PEOPLE

Average Annual Wage in 2017 = $43,600 The wage cut off was shifted a bit higher to $35,500 for low wage jobs or 81% of the Average Annual Wage of $43,600

Region 12 Job growth by industry since 2008 Health Care & State Government are the only “high paying” industries to have added jobs since 2008. The 9 remaining high paying industries have all lost jobs, led by a nearly 3,400 decline in construction.

Commuting Patterns – Work to Home Source: https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

Why? Preferences Housing Income Service Demands Labor Force AGE Why? Preferences Housing Income Service Demands Labor Force

We are Aging Fast Currently very few people over the age 65. 6th lowest share of all states in US (13%) in 2015 3rd fastest growing in the 65+ Baby Boomers Born 1946 – 1964 1,360,000 Boomers in Colorado (25% of pop. in 2015) 2015 – 2030 Colorado’s population 65+ will grow 719,000 to 1,270,000 (77%) (primarily from aging) Transition age distribution from “young” to more US average between 2015 and 2030. State Demography Office, Census Bureau

People turning 65 annually 350 per year Out migration – around net zero since 2010

Aging Issues Numbers Economic Driver - wealthier …. depends Impact on occupational mix Labor Force Housing – Universal Design, sidewalks All price levels and need levels, fewer movers. Income – Downward Pressure Health / Disabilities Transportation Public Finance – Downward Pressure Aging Plans?

Ethnicity/Race increasing

This makes it look like aging Hispanics may not be a big deal but between 2000 and 2010 Hispanic 65+ increased by 56% compared to the entire population which increased by 32% Forecast to increase by 97% Census Bureau

About 60% of the growth in the labor force will be Hispanic. If the Labor force increases by 100, 60 of them will be Hispanic.

35 Source: ACS 1-year PUMS

Growing but Slowing

Not increase in fertility rate Larger number of females, larger share older (CO peak millennial turning 30 (22-37)) as well as an increase in the share of the Hispanic population of child bearing age females Males closing the gap...US Females, 81 Males, 76 vs 81. CO ranks 5th in the United States, with Minnesota #1 and Mississippi #51 several counties in Colorado’s high country are routinely cited as having the highest life expectancies in the Nation.

2.4 million increase today to 2050. 2 million in FR, 84% of residents in CO live in the Front Range, projecting 84% in 2050, growing from 4.8 million to 6.8 million. Western Slope growing 600,000 to 900,000 and its share from 10 to 11% and all other shares declining slightly although all growing in terms of number.

State – 2.4M Front Range – 2M Denver Metro – 1M North FR – 600K South FR – 400K Rest of State – 400K Of 2 million along the front range, half of whom will locate in the Denver Metro Area. The other million between the North and South Front Range, with 600,000 in North Front Range, and 400,000 in South Front Range. 300,000 are projected to locate on the Western Slope, the majority in Mesa, followed by La Plata, Garfield, Eagle, and Montrose counties. Most of the remaining growth is expected in areas immediately adjacent to the Front Range in Elbert, Morgan, and Logan Counties followed by Lincoln and Kit Carson.

Risks (plus or minus) National Growth – National Policies – Intl’ immigration Water Housing – supply, price, type, location Infrastructure/Transportation State Budget/Policy Aging – labor force, prepared labor force Industry changes – downturn, bust, recession, competitiveness. Natural disasters - nationally

Summary Plan for risks - in industries, climate, labor, water, downturns. All connected – jobs, population, housing, infrastructure. Migration – how do we continue to attract and retain the best worker for the right job. Aging – fastest growing age group, labor force, jobs, income, housing, public finance Growing racial diversity at youngest ages – labor force Growing but slowing.

Thank you State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs Elizabeth Garner Elizabeth.garner@state.co.us 303-864-7750 Demography.dola.colorado.gov

It’s Important. It’s Easy. It’s Safe April 1, 2020

ACS 2017 Median Home Value 4th 5th 2nd 3rd 5th highest median home value – Hawaii, DC, California, Mass. 348,900 Washington, NY and OR are 6, 7, 8th 12th highest median household income 69,117 1st – DC 2nd Maryland 3rd NJ 4th – HI 5th – MA 9th – CA American Community Survey, 2017

Population changes as a result of three things – a birth, a death, or a mover. Those moved in minus those that moved out is net migration. As we look back – times with significant job growth, saw significant population growth. (1970s, 1990s) Natural resource bust, tech bust, great recession. Note that of 100,000 person increase last year as well as forecast for this year – only 60% of that change is due to migration – the remainder due to births. Natural Increase is projected to decline after 2028 as the population transitions from a young age distribution to a more average distribution causing an increase in the death rate. The number of births will continue to increase, a result of a larger population base from which they are born. The number of deaths also increases, but increases faster, given a larger population base and a larger share of older persons who are subject to higher mortality rates. Slow our overall population growth. In recent years births also slowed – consistent with slowing of births during recessions, also unique new trend – significant decreases in younger women’s fertility. Colorado’s economy was growing rapidly in 1970……

Median Home Value, ACS 2013-17 Colorado $286,100 Owner Occupied Jackson $171,300 Grand $285,000 Summit $547,700 Eagle $471,100 Pitkin $593,600 Colorado $286,100 2017 Denver had a Median Housing value of $395K and a MHI of $65.2K, meaning it now takes 6 years worth of median annual income to buy a median priced home – per 1-year ACS estimate S1901 and B25077.

Quick Facts On Colorado’s Population 5th fastest growth Apr 2010 to July 2018 @ 13.2% - DC, TX, UT, and FL vs. 6.0% U.S. 8th most growth Apr 2010 to July 2018 @ 666,248 – TX, CA, FL, GA, WA, NC, AZ (61% of growth from migration) 7 county Metro Denver +413,575 w/ 116,700 in Denver Median Age: 36.8 (11th lowest) – UT, DC, AK, TX, ND, ID 13.8% over age of 65 – AK, UT, DC, TX, GA 21.5% Hispanic – NM, TX, CA, AZ, NV, FL 6th lowest share of our population over the age of 65 7th largest share of Hispanic (ahead of NJ and NY), but 17th in % foreign born at just 9.8% - below the U.S. average of 13.5 Top 6 states for Hispanic or Latino are all over 25%, ranging from a high of nearly 49% in New mexico, TX & CA are both 39%, Arizona is 31%, Nevada is 29% and Florida is 26% 62.1% of all growth since 2010 has occurred in Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, Boulder, Broomfield, Douglas, and Jeffco

Proprietor Employment in 2017   # Proprietors (self-emp, 1099, partners & other non-employers) Prop. % of Total Emp. Top Proprietor Industry # Proprietors in Top Industry % of all Prop working in top ind Statewide 514,071 15.5% Prof. Sci. & Tech 85,971 16.7% Eagle 7,283 17.6% Real Estate 1,602 22.0% Grand 2,050 20.5% Construction 373 18.2% Jackson 208 25.5% Agriculture 84 40.4% Pitkin 3,695 900 24.4% Summit 4,350 16.3% 1,034 23.8%

From 2014 to 2016, proprietors accounted for 1 out of 3 new jobs added in Chaffee County.

It’s Important, It’s Easy, It’s Safe Preparing for Census 2020 It’s Important, It’s Easy, It’s Safe Federal State Local Community

It’s Important The Census is the Foundation of Democracy The decennial census is required by the U.S. Constitution (Article I, 1, § 2, cl. 3): “The actual enumeration shall be made within three years after the first meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years” And the Fourteenth Amendment, Section 2: “Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State”

State and Local Redistricting Redistricting draws boundaries within each state for voting and representation, after reapportionment has taken place – US House of Representatives State House and Senate Districts County Commissioner Districts City Council Districts

Census 2020 = Local Funding $900 billion in federal funding allocated in US based on Census population counts Approx. $2,300/person per year in Colorado or over $13 billion Senior services (Medicare) Public libraries Health services (Medicaid) Community centers Road improvements Public Housing (Section 8) Title 1 Grants to Local Education Agencies Programs for Veterans Community colleges Tuition assistance Women, Infants & Children (WIC) Public Assistance (SNAP) School Lunch Health Centers All direct distributions. : http://bit.ly/2EdYLbT Based on George Washington Univ. Study

It’s Easy More ways to respond. 11 Questions, 10 minutes Online, Phone, Mail, In-person interview Online available in 13 languages English, Spanish, Chinese, Vietnamese, Korean, Russian, Arabic, French, Tagalog, Polish, Haitian Creole, Portuguese and Japanese 11 Questions, 10 minutes

It’s Safe All data are protected under Title 13 of the U.S. Code Census will never share a respondents personal information with other government agencies Only summary data by geography is released – no individual records Records are confidential for 72 years by law (Title 44, U.S. Code) All Census Bureau employees swear a lifetime oath to protect respondent information. Penalty for wrongful disclosure is up to 5 years imprisonment and/or a fine of $250,000

Big Picture: 2016-2017 Employment Change US – 146.6 million jobs (CES), + 2.3 million or 1.6% Colorado - 3,309,400, +77,600 or 2.4% 6th fastest growth rate in 2017 - ID, NV, UT, WA, AZ Growth from 2010 to 2017 of 521,985 (11th Most growth) Ranked 3rd fastest 10-17 @ 2.6% - Utah (1), Nevada (2) Uneven Growth – within state and industries

Total Employment vs. Pre-Recession Peak and Prior Decade   Total Ch. 2008-17 Pct. Ch. 2008-17 Total Ch. 97-07 Pct. Ch. 97-07 Eagle 743 1.8% 10,505 35% Grand 32 0.3% 2,281 30% Jackson -36 -4.2% 64 9% Pitkin -976 -4.4% 2,091 11% Summit 2,736 11.4% 3,656 18% R12 Total 2,508 2.5% 18,607 23% Statewide 381,314 13.0% 491,416 20%