Eurostat's plans and legal framework of the 2021 round of population and housing censuses  David Thorogood Population and migration unit Eurostat Policy Group on Statistical Cooperation 18-19 October 2018, Kruševo Point 5 of the agenda Doc. PGSC/2018/09

2021 EU Census Programme Main programme Based on the 2011 programme and the existing framework regulation (Regulation (EC)763/2008) that remains in force Census data geo-referenced to a 1km square grid New development requiring a new legal base

Reviewing the 2011 EU census programme First time that a collection of harmonised European census data had been defined in such detail Framework regulation setting common rules, key concepts and definitions for the decennial provision of data on population and housing Definitions, breakdowns, cross-tabulations, metadata and quality reporting all defined in detailed implementing legislation Extremely large data collection Output harmonisation Countries free to use any appropriate data sources and methods

2011 as the basis for 2021 2021 as an evolution and modernisation of 2011 2013 – Directors of Social Statistics (DSS) agreed that the 2021 data collection should be based on the existing framework regulation for the census The DSS asked Eurostat to define the 2021 data collection and prepare new implementing regulations as soon as possible Task Force on future EU censuses began this work in parallel with its work on the post-2021 census

Principles followed in developing 2021 - In-depth review of 2011 to identify areas where changes were necessary - Simplify, where possible Avoid optional categories in classifications Remove cross-tabulations and/or dimensions that were little used in 2011 - Ensure that the census data remain relevant - Focus on the priority needs of EU census users - Recognise and preserve the uniqueness of the census as a source of multi-dimensional and geographically detailed data, allowing analyses across different themes and topics that are not possible using other data collections.

Three new implementing regulations Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2017/543 … as regards the technical specifications of the topics and of their breakdowns   Commission Regulation (EU) 2017/712 …establishing the reference year and the programme of the statistical data and metadata … Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2017/881 … as regards the modalities and structure of the quality reports and the technical format for data transmission, and amending Regulation (EU) No 1151/2010

- Simplified definitions and breakdowns Regulation (EU) 2017/543 … as regards the technical specifications of the topics and of their breakdowns Technical definitions continue to be based on the Conference of European Statisticians Recommendations - Simplified definitions and breakdowns - Most optional classifications removed - Updated definitions and breakdowns to ensure statistics remain relevant Examples of changes made 'Current Activity Status' now reflects updated ILO recommendations for employment statistics 'Family Status' - married couples, registered partners and persons in consensual unions combined in simplified category 'Partners' Certain housing variables (bathing facilities, piped water, heating, toilets) may be automatically coded if the NSI can show that virtually all dwellings have these facilities

Commission Regulation (EU) 2017/712 establishing the reference year and the programme of the statistical data and metadata Consultations with key data users to identify high priority topics and cross-tabulations – to retain or expand relative to 2011 target reductions on low priority or little used cross-tabulations The table programme for 2021 retains the richness of the census as a data source and covers the priority issues (including migration-related topics), while reducing significantly the burden on NSIs Confirms that the data will relate to a census date in 2021 Defines the textual metadata that must be supplied for the census topics Regulation (EU) 2017/712 also confirms that the data will relate to a census date in 2021. Although NSIs are free to decide on the exact census date, this must fall during 2021. This Regulation also defines the textual metadata that must be supplied for the census topics

Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2017/881 of 23 May 2017 … as regards the modalities and structure of the quality reports and the technical format for data transmission, and amending Regulation (EU) No 1151/2010 Metadata and quality information to complement and complete the requirements for textual metadata Metadata based closely on the metadata defined for the 2011 data For 2021, a significant reduction in the size and complexity of the quality hypercubes Revisions to the quality information to better reflect changes to census methods

Data for both 2011 and 2021 to be kept until 1 January 2035 Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2017/881 of 23 May 2017 … as regards the modalities and structure of the quality reports and the technical format for data transmission, and amending Regulation (EU) No 1151/2010 - continued Data for both 2011 and 2021 to be kept until 1 January 2035 Data to be based on the Statistical Data and Metadata eXchange and SDMS standard dissemination using the Census Hub.

Disseminating data geo-referenced to a 1km square grid Increasing importance of geospatial data combined with social and economic statistics Noted by 2015 report of the UN Committee of Experts on Global Geospatial Information Management "2020 round of censuses … an important opportunity for the integration of statistical and geospatial data" European Statistical Advisory Committee DGINS – Budapest memorandum Geographically detailed statistics that relate to issues and local areas that people recognise and can understand Information about 'my town', 'my district' Overcoming 'post-truth' in public debate

1 km square grid data A new departure for 2021 requiring a separate legal base - Temporary Statistical Action Grid data needed for allocation and evaluation of funds for regional policies (approx. €50 billion/year) assessing accessibility of services, population exposed to environmental risks… defining territorial typologies under the TERCET Regulation – urban/rural regions, cities, labour market areas, commuting zones, coastal regions

Data to be disseminated at 1 km square grid level 13 data items: total population sex (males, females) age (under 15, 15-64, 65 and over) employed persons (where these data are available in the reporting country) place of birth (in the reporting country, in another EU country, outside EU) usual residence 12 months before (unchanged, within reporting country, outside of the reporting country) Data to be disseminated via an (INSPIRE Directive-compliant) infrastructure based on the Census Hub

Statistical disclosure control Grid data present particular confidentiality challenges Small areas / small populations Risk of differencing Grant project funded by Eurostat and led by Statistics Netherlands 'Harmonised protection of census data in the ESS' Recommendations (optional) for the protection of grid data and for the main EU census outputs

Compliance with the INSPIRE Directive The INSPIRE Directive aims to create a spatial data infrastructure for the EU common technical standards to enable the sharing of environmental spatial information between administrations and to facilitate public access assist in policy making and evaluation across national boundaries by the use of compatible standards EU Member States must ensure that any spatial data that they produce comply with the common INSPIRE standards relating to data, metadata and output production The planned EU collection of census grid data will be INSPIRE compliant dissemination infrastructure for the grid datasets, based on an extension of the Census Hub reduced burden for Member States

Conclusions – main Census data programme The main census data collection programme for 2021 is now fully defined with a clear legal base Relative to 2021 Simplification Updated to ensure ongoing relevance of the data Focus on priority data and metadata Implementing legislation is in place much earlier in the decennial census cycle

Conclusions – 1 km square grid data In many NSIs, there is already good availability of data geo-coded to a single point that can readily be assigned to standard grids. This is likely to increase in the coming years Increasing importance of geospatial data combined with social and economic statistics This innovation is an opportunity for the future, opening new data analysis and use possibilities (ensuring greater relevance and comparability of data)

'EU Legislation on the 2021 Population and Housing Censuses - Explanatory Notes'    A Eurostat manual intended to provide a detailed explanation of the 2021 EU Census Programme and a guide to implementation for the EU legislation expected to be published in December 2018  

Thank you