Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Market Outlook Oct. 4, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.1 89.6 0.0 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.3 52.8 1.2 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,411 4,693 107 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 438 8 Imports 24 22 25 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,735 5,156 116 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,070 10 Seed & Residual 122 146 112 137 1 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,130 2,060 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,289 4,268 12 Ending Stocks 888 103 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.35 8.60 -0.30 Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for Stocks 2 2

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 0.0 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 181.3 3.9 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,827 241 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 138 Imports 67 57 40 50 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,937 17,017 453 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,312 5,575 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,600 5,650 25 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,460 1,480 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,425 2,400 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,897 15,105 125 Ending Stocks 1,912 228 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.40 3.50 -0.10 Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for Stocks 3 3

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

USDA Objective Soy Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS 7 7

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 8 8

USDA Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS 9 9

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Ethanol Production Source: EIA

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Current Soybean Futures 9.19 8.56 Source: CME Group, 10/3/2018

Current Corn Futures 4.01 3.67 Source: CME Group, 10/3/2018

2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs Based on USDA prices

Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs Based on USDA prices

Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/