State Climate Office Weekly Drought Update Adnan Akyuz, Ph.D. NDSU, AES State Climatologist Updated 6/20/2019

US Drought Monitor

Divisional Precipitation Anomalies and Rankings May 2019 (65th Driest) Spring 2019 (42nd Driest) -1.09” 22th -1.07” 21st -0.19” 36th -1.81” 11th -2.05” 10th -1.36” 24th 0.19” 78th -0.09” 68th -0.55” 51st 0.12” 70th -0.64” 47th 0.20” 69th 1.07” 99th 0.77” 94th 0.73” 85th 0.62” 78th 0.69” 88th 1.22” 94th Negative numbers indicate drier than long-term (1901-2000) average. Lower rankings indicate historically drier conditions on record (125 years total).

Divisional Temperature Anomalies and Rankings May 2019 (11th Coolest) Spring 2019 (29th Coldest) -1.3F 44th -1.6F 46th -1.7F 38th -1.3F 44th -1.6F 46th -1.7F 38th -2.4F 35th -2.4F 35th -2.8F 27th -3.4F 16th -2.8F 27rd -3.4F 16th -3.5F 21st -3.3F 20th -3.5F 21st -3.3F 20th -4.2F 9th -4.2F 9th Negative numbers indicate cooler than long-term (1901-2000) average. Lower rankings indicate historically cooler conditions on record (124 years total).

30-Day Precipitation Total Accumulation % of Normal (NDAWN Images)

Long Term Precipitation % of Normal 60 Days 90 Days (HPRCC Images)

(% Change from previous week) Cumulative % area (% Change from previous week) None 58% (-4%) D2 7% (+7%) D1 22% (+5%) DO 42% (+4%)

State Coverage and Intensity

Drought Change 4-week Change 4-week Change

Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide) 295 (Aug 8, 2017) 329 (Aug 8, 2006) 70 (+15) Drought Severity and Coverage Index = ADO + 2AD1 + 3AD2 + 4AD3 + 5AD4 (Akyüz, 2007) Where: A is a % of the state covered under the corresponding D-severity

Accumulated Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide) 10,642 19,319 9,530 9653 2116 11,991 1714 17 weeks of no drought *Numbers indicate the area under the DSCI Index Curve *Akyuz (2017)

Soil Moisture and Bare Soil Temperature Soil Moisture Departure from Normal 5-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) (80mm = 3.15”)

Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices Divide County: Severely Dry. There have been no significant rains this spring for most parts of Divide county. Crop growth is delayed and there has been minimal cool-season forage production on pastures and hayfields. Lack of forage production on pastures and haylands. Cattle producers are culling their herds to reduce stocking rates. Crop and hay yields are being significantly impacted by the drought conditions.

Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices Williams County: Moderately Dry. Most of western Williams County has had less than 1.5" of rain since snow melt in early April. Top soil is dry and late planted crops are exhibiting spotty emergence. Northwestern Williams County and western Divide County are especially dry. Scattered showers that have come through the area have not provided significant moisture, less than 0.2" in most places the last 2 weeks. Spotty crop emergence. Pastures slow to green up. Alfalfa stand I manage is very short for the 2nd week of June; I anticipate much less hay will be made 1st cutting than expected. Dry conditions have farmers worried about emergence and establishment of crops. Lots of farmers talking about the need for rain. One producer worried about lack of hay production this year as first cutting (has not happened yet) will not yield as much as he was expecting. 

Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices Ward County: Moderately Dry. Conditions continue to deteriorate. Grass is heading out at shorter heights and browning is occurring. Crops are becoming moisture stressed as well. Reduced stocking rates, supplemental feeding later into the spring, searching for more pasture land, culling deeper into herd. 

Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices McHenry County: Moderately Dry. The pastures are shorter than a putting green on a golf course. There have been several failures in crop germination, or where the crop has germinated and died. Several farmers have had to replant. Stands are looking very poor. Concerns: Water, forage (ZERO hay crop available this year), pastures are in extremely poor conditions. Deep culling procedures, selling what doesn't fit into their protocols, looking at buying forage from outside the area. There is a standing burn ban in our county and surrounding counties. Forage production is extremely poor, pastures are not going to be able to be grazed more than 1-2 months at the most.

Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices Benson County: Severely Dry. No subsoil moisture, some areas have had little rain. Plus we were in a drought the last 2 years going on DRY Grass and pasture drying up. Grass heading out premature. If we don’t get rain we will see reduced crop yields, Hay crop has been impacted

Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices Pierce County: Moderately Dry. Un-irrigated lawns are already burning up. Pastures are showing grazing stress as there is not enough subsoil moisture for regrowth and we have not received sufficient rains to stimulate regrowth. Sloughs are continuing to recede further. Crop producers are concerned about small grain yield establishment as the young crops are much stressed. Cattle producers are worried about having enough grass through the grazing season and if they'll get enough hay as most have used up their carryover supplies with delayed pasture turnout. Emerged crops are showing signs of stress and some producers are concerned that later season crops may not germinate. Pastures and hay meadows are already stressed from 2 previous years of drought and these grasses are 3-4 inches shorter than previous years with many heading out early.

Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices Rolette County: Moderately Dry. Pastures have little grass. Hay crop is going to be short. Shortage of pasture, water supply, short hay crop rotating pastures a lot sooner hoping for rain. Pastures are short, hay crop is short, stock dams and sloughs are low.

Corn GDD Accumulation Forecast* Oct 4 Jul 27 Oct 9 *U2U Decision Support Tools: https://hprcc.unl.edu/gdd.php

Crassland Productivity Forecast (June-August) *These three maps show the forecasted percent change in grassland production compared to a county’s 34-year average. USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub: http://grasscast.agsci.colostate.edu/

Drought Pictures Cow herd near Karlsruhe, McHenry County, ND. Photo by Greg Black Pastures and a hay field that have not been touched this year. The forage production is none existent. Near Karlsruhe, McHenry County, ND. Photo by Greg Black.

Drought Pictures A pasture that have not yet been grazed this summer. Minimal growth and browning of forages. Ward County. By Paige Brummund. Drought stressed corn in McHenry County. By Rachel Wald

7-Day Forecast

14-Day Forecast

Week 3 to 4 Precipitation Forecast

Summer Weather Outlook Precipitation Temperature