Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Market Outlook May 20, 2019 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Meal Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Global Shares Source: USDA

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 92.8 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 176.0 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,609 14,420 15,030 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 2,095 Imports 67 57 36 35 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,939 16,595 17,160 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,304 5,300 5,450 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,500 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,451 1,450 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,438 2,300 2,275 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,799 14,500 15,015 Ending Stocks 2,485 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.50 3.30 Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.2 89.2 84.6 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.3 51.6 49.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,412 4,544 4,150 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 438 995 Imports 24 22 17 20 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,735 4,999 5,165 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,100 2,115 Seed & Residual 122 146 113 129 130 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,775 1,950 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,297 4,004 4,195 Ending Stocks 970 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.33 8.55 8.10 Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

Change in Principal Crop Acreage Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS 15 15

U.S. Corn Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS 16 16

U.S. Soybean Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS 17 17

Weather Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC 18 18

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 19 19

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 20 20

Current Corn Futures 3.95 3.55 Source: CME Group, 5/17/2019

Current Soybean Futures 8.39 8.48 Source: CME Group, 5/17/2019

2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

2019/20 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

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