Joint Meeting of DMES and CMFB Task Forces Luxembourg, 27 April 2016 ECB-UNESTRICTED Macroeconomic Statistics Division External Statistics Division Issues of Timing and Consistency of Coordinated Benchmark and Routine Revisions Joint Meeting of DMES and CMFB Task Forces Luxembourg, 27 April 2016

Definition of concepts Different sub-domains may currently follow different practices for organisational or methodological reasons: National accounts Main aggregates SUT/IOT Sector accounts Non-financial accounts Financial accounts b.o.p./i.i.p. Current & capital account International Investment Position 2 2

Definition of concepts Major revisions: may affect entire series Coordinated Major Ad-Hoc: Change in European methodology or legislation, aligned across countries Coordinated Major Regular Regular intervals, aligned across countries Uncoordinated/National Major: A revision deeper than a routine revision due to country-specific reasons, not aligned across countries. Routine revisions: regular, at annual or infra-annual frequency, for a specified maximum series depth 3 3

Timing of revisions Major revision usually with annual routine revision If backdata released in steps: separate major revisions “Annual major revisions”: allow gradual improvements – in practice still “packaging” of major changes – this makes it more similar to (extended) routine revision ? Combination of lack of aligned routine revision and of aligned major revisions across domains may lead to inconsistencies and backdata differences lasting a long time/an entire cycle Impact on European aggregates: Particularly obvious for all b.o.p./R.o.W. due to inconsistent cross-border flows 4 4

Issues in the alignment of revisions between domains Need for alignment between domains: align the timing of major revisions with the main annual revision. Most countries use 3rd quarter. have a single point in the year to revise all domains nationally: to avoid lagging domains or even near permanent difference (as often for NA and BoP) have the same backwards depth across domains 5 5

Issues in the alignment of revisions between domains Need for alignment between countries: Minimise asymmetries and inconsistencies Need to monitor/steer data quality: checking “external consistency” requires one single point when all countries and domains are (most) consistent Minimise the flow of revisions affecting EU statistics and uses: The permanent revisions in European aggregates damage the perceived quality and reliability not only of European aggregates, but all uses of EU country data (MIP etc.) 6 6

Issues in the alignment of revisions between frequencies Need for alignment across frequencies: Practice of non-aligned revisions to quarterly/annual data: Mostly an issue of delayed revisions of quarterly data May concern annual routine revisions as well as major revisions Users of only annual data not much affected But very unfortunate of users quarterly data 7 7

Sub-domains with identical revision policies Grouping of sub-domains: Main aggregates often aligned with SUT/IOT ? But SUT/IOT produced with delays, and not always subject to major revisions Non-financial accounts aligned with main aggregates ? Financial accounts often not aligned with non-financial accounts B.o.p/i.i.p. revisions more aligned with financial accounts than with non-financial accounts/main aggregates 8 8

Issues for discusson Discuss the “six needs”: Alignment between domains: timing of major revisions & main annual revision single point in the year to revise all domains nationally same backwards depth across domains Alignment across countries to : to minimise asymmetries and inconsistencies to enhance data quality at European level / aggregates to manage flow of revisions in European statistics (2) Discuss the alignment of revisions to Q and A data (3) Discuss grouping of sub-domains with identical revision practices 9 9

Framework for major revisions The national need for major revisions outside major ad-hoc or regular revisions is recognised although not formally in the proposal 11 11

Framework for quarterly routine revisions The coherence should be ensured between the three releases of quarterly accounts. 12 12

Annual routine revisions 13