J. Cofala, Z. Klimont, F. Wagner, M. Amann

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Presentation transcript:

J. Cofala, Z. Klimont, F. Wagner, M. Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis National scenarios for the NEC revision State of play as of End January 2006

National scenarios provided for the NEC review Country Energy Agriculture AUSTRIA Yes ITALY BELGIUM No LATVIA CYPRUS LITHUANIA CZECH REP. LUXEMBOURG DENMARK MALTA ESTONIA NETHERLANDS FINLAND POLAND FRANCE PORTUGAL GERMANY SLOVAKIA GREECE SLOVENIA HUNGARY SPAIN IRELAND SWEDEN UK Total 18 16

National NEC vs CAFE energy projections for 2020 [PJ]

National NEC vs CAFE energy projections for 2020 [PJ]

National NEC vs CAFE energy projections for 2020 [PJ] *) Incomplete data

CO2 projections for 2012 (1) relative to 1990

CO2 projections for 2012 (2) relative to 1990 *) preliminary incomplete estimate

CO2 projections for 2020 Implied emissions of NEC national scenario vs National reports to UNFCCC 2005 *) preliminary incomplete estimate

Comparison of agricultural activity projections

Comparison of agricultural activity projections

Projections of agricultural GHG emissions for 2015 (relative to 1990, using GAINS emission factors)

Projections of agricultural GHG emissions for 2010 (relative to 1990, using adjusted emission factors)

Projections of agricultural GHG emissions for 2015 (relative to 1990, using adjusted emission factors)

Conclusions Due to lack of documentation of underlying assumptions in national reports for UNFCCC system, difficult to diagnose their consistency with national submissions for NEC Situation seems better for agriculture than for energy Comparison with PRIMES projections not yet completed How to proceed?