Climate Change and its effects on the integrity of the coastal system ML San Diego-McGlone, Ph.D. Faith Varona, TAO-Pilipinas Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptability Assessment Tools Mike Atrigenio Adopted from L. David’s and P. Alino’s Presentations UP Marine Science Institute Laura David, Roselle Borja, UPMSI

Is the interface between land, sea and atmosphere. The COASTAL ZONE Is the interface between land, sea and atmosphere. It contains natural systems that provide more than half of the global ecosystem goods (e.g., fish, oil, minerals) and services (e.g., natural protection from storms and tidal waves, recreation). In addition, 14 of the world’s 17 largest megacities are located along coasts and most of them (11) are located in Asia’s fastest growing economies. Definition of the Coastal Area and its Functions – LOICZ Chemical/ Biological/ Human Population ----- Meeting Notes (10/27/11 08:25) ----- Temporal changes across timescales http://www.loicz.org/about_us/index.html.en

Dynamic Environment – Changing Space through Time : Daily changes with TIDE Seasonal changes with STORMS The point here is to show that the coast is constantly reacting to change Dynamic Environment – Changing Space through time : Daily; Seasonal; and longer term ----- Meeting Notes (10/27/11 08:25) ----- Changes in the coast is exacerbated by climate-induced sea level rise. Long-term changes - sediment transport F. Siringan

So when we talk about Climate Change effects to the coasts we are talking about changes that affect the the frequency and intensity of these natural cycles or changes beyond these natural cycles Defining Climate Change Effects – beyond cycles or tamper with cycles ----- Meeting Notes (10/27/11 08:25) ----- The typical scenario as a consquence of sea level rise is this: More intense storms due to increased SST Sea Level Rise

When we talk about Climate Change effects to the coasts we are also talking about Impacts to system function that have consequence to human activities: Impacts to system function that have consequence to human activities: ----- Meeting Notes (10/27/11 08:25) ----- Overall climate change afffecting several sectors which threatens economic stability and human well-being.

The problem of climate change is the increase in frequency of bleaching events which do not allow for RECOVERY TIME Bleaching does happen but cycles are getting affected – with just a 0.3C increase per decade the number of bleaching incidents are expected to almost double ----- Meeting Notes (10/27/11 08:25) ----- As coral dies, gone are the places, the bottom complexity, that provides home to various species of fish. with just a 0.3C increase per decade the number of bleaching incidents are expected to almost double

Reef/ healthy cover/ more fish Eroded reef/ low diversity/ less fish Examples on impact to coastal resources: increase in ocean temperature leads to coral bleaching Reef/ healthy cover/ more fish Eroded reef/ low diversity/ less fish Examples on impact to coastal resources: Reef/ healthy cover more fish/ impact of inc in temp to coral bleaching ----- Meeting Notes (10/27/11 08:25) ----- Can corals survive coral bleaching?

Photos: Mike Atrigenio ----- Meeting Notes (10/27/11 08:25) ----- Another direct consequence of climate change is ocean acidification. Photos: Mike Atrigenio

Heliopora Sutherst 2000 ----- Meeting Notes (10/27/11 08:25) ----- This is what we observed so far. However, its linked to climate change needs futher elucidation. Sutherst 2000

Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007 ----- Meeting Notes (10/27/11 08:25) ----- Corals have calcium carbonate skeleton which are very sensitive to lowering of the pH or water acidity. Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007

Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007 ----- Meeting Notes (10/27/11 08:25) ----- As coral's ability to acrete calcium carbonate, their growth is also affected, hence, their potential to keep up with sea level rise is greatly compromised. Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007

Response of reefs to sea level rise ----- Meeting Notes (10/27/11 08:25) ----- As we lose coral cover, coastal protection provided by the corals are also gone. Source: Lecture 8 of MS 230 course, Dr. F.P. Siringan

Loss of Reef Spells more coastal erosion Aside from providing habitat for fish a Healthy Reef also acts as barrier Loss of Reef Spells more coastal erosion Healthy Reef also acts as barrier

Coastal Erosion leads to these familiar faces of climate related disasters damaged by a strong typhoon leaving behind half concrete walls, floor slabs and a septic vault ----- Meeting Notes (10/27/11 08:04) ----- Coastal protection will also compromised by the loss of mangroves that fringe coastal areas to sea level rise. Other barriers such as a seawall can be put up to replace damaged reefs however, the current cost estimate of building a seawall is about 39.2 M PhP/km

With seedlings being more susceptible THUS ALSO AFFECTING BIODIVERSITY Biodiversity Zonation Laura T. David and Maricar Samson Blue is current high tide; with sea level rise the new high tide will be the red line ----- Meeting Notes (10/27/11 08:04) ----- To associated organisms that reside on mangrove ecosystems as well. With seedlings being more susceptible Middle Seaward Landward

All this will affect

www.openclimate.org ----- Meeting Notes (10/27/11 08:27) ----- MPA establishment as the core CC change adaptation strategy. www.openclimate.org

(MEMES) Motivating Ecosystem Management Enhancement Strategy Adaptive Management through (MEMES) Motivating Ecosystem Management Enhancement Strategy Some of the monitoring information shows that the variability of the conditions of the coral reefs are profoundly affected by climate variability such as the PDO and ENSO events. Melbourne-Thomas et al. 2010

Maintaining Coastal Integrity And Equitable Access Restoring coastal protection Effective erosion buffers Sustaining coastal integrity Thresholds maintained within acceptable limits vis-a-vis coastal erosion, sedimentation and thermal anomalies Organizing coastwatch Reducing threats and sharing costs Enhancing equitable access Disaster risk reduction Coastal integrity is one of the most impending risks that climate change adaptation would need to deal with especially by reducing the exacerbating effects of human activity such as water extraction leading to subsidence.

Knowledge-Based Communities Sustaining Resilient Knowledge-Based Communities LUZON South China Sea (B) North Philippine Sea (A-1) Sulu Sea (C) Visayan Seas (D) Celebes Sea (E) South Philippine Sea (A-2) SST and coral bleaching needs MPA network resiliency system Maintaining coastal integrity amidst extreme weather events Managing fisheries in ENSO & La Nina regimes Reducing siltation from high precipitation The STEWARDS CAN Partnership: Seeing a Sea Change Understanding and adapting wisely Pressures, State and Responses Baseline profiling & vulnerability assessment SLR zoning adjustments

Protecting 10% of the coral reefs in the Philippines would take 100 years: accelerate the area covered and improve its effectiveness

MPA Management Effectiveness Assessment Tool (MPA MEAT) Based on Philippine experience on MPAs Evidence-based Use of thresholds, scores, and management focus Scores = amount of effort Levels = important factors towards effective management

Why Form MPA Networks? Existing connectivity among ecosystems at various scales: benefits from natural networks need to be sustained Single MPAs may not be enough for protection at larger scales.

Sample Benefits Derived from Inter-LGU Collaboration (Cost for CLE operations per square kilometer of municipal waters) Fish Biomass LGU 1 PhP 528.60 LGU 2 PhP 2,217.68 LGU 3 PhP 879.18 LGU 4 PhP 12,780.53 LGU 5 PhP 293.95 Individual LGUs enforcing their respective municipal waters (effective enforcement up to 5 kilometers) LGU 1 PhP 467.64 LGU 2 1,095.14 LGU 3 418.84 LGU 4 6,744.44 LGU 5 242.21 Inter-LGU Coastal Resource Management with joint enforcement (effective enforcement up to 10 kilometers) The Philippine Environmental Governance 2 Project