An International Model to Predict Recurrent Cardiovascular Disease

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Presentation transcript:

An International Model to Predict Recurrent Cardiovascular Disease Peter W.F. Wilson, MD, Ralph D'Agostino, PhD, Deepak L. Bhatt, MD, MPH, Kim Eagle, MD, Michael J. Pencina, PhD, Sidney C. Smith, MD, Mark J. Alberts, MD, Jean Dallongeville, MD, Shinya Goto, MD, PhD, Alan T. Hirsch, MD, Chiau-Suong Liau, MD, PhD, E. Magnus Ohman, MD, Joachim Röther, MD, Christopher Reid, PhD, Jean-Louis Mas, MD, Ph. Gabriel Steg, MD The American Journal of Medicine Volume 125, Issue 7, Pages 695-703.e1 (July 2012) DOI: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2012.01.014 Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Calibration by decile according to risk for next cardiovascular events and for cardiovascular death. Bars represent observed (Kaplan-Meier; black) and model-based predicted (decile specific means; gray) probabilities of a cardiovascular outcome over 20 months in deciles of model-based predicted probabilities. The American Journal of Medicine 2012 125, 695-703.e1DOI: (10.1016/j.amjmed.2012.01.014) Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Score sheet to estimate the risk of the next cardiovascular event and of cardiovascular death over 20 months of follow-up, based on separate, multivariable, regression-estimating equations for each outcome. The sheet is used by assigning points for each factor, summing the points, and determining the percentage risk of either the next cardiovascular event or of cardiovascular death. CV=cardiovascular. The American Journal of Medicine 2012 125, 695-703.e1DOI: (10.1016/j.amjmed.2012.01.014) Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Score sheet to estimate the risk of the next cardiovascular event and of cardiovascular death over 20 months of follow-up, based on separate, multivariable, regression-estimating equations for each outcome. The sheet is used by assigning points for each factor, summing the points, and determining the percentage risk of either the next cardiovascular event or of cardiovascular death. CV=cardiovascular. The American Journal of Medicine 2012 125, 695-703.e1DOI: (10.1016/j.amjmed.2012.01.014) Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. Terms and Conditions