TFMM 2016 Trend Report Main Findings 17th TFMM annual meeting – Utrecht (The Netherlands)
TFMM Trend Assessment Process Methodology Nov 2014: May 2015: Methodology workshop Paris May 2015: Overview TFMM Meeting Krakow Sep 2015: Outline by chapter (writing teams) Dec 2015: First complete draft for comments to TFMM Mar 2016: Revised pre-final draft sent to EMEP&WGE Extended Bureaux May 2016: Final version presented to TFMM Publication by CCC/NILU as joint TFMM/CCC/MSC- E/MSC-W Report Methodology Selection of measurement sites and consolidation of the database (available on TFMM wiki) Consensus statistical methodology Eurodelta-Trends modelling exercise
Ozone 1990-2012: 10% reduction in the amplitude of peaks 20% reduction in the number of 50ppb exceedances 2002-2012 30% and 37% reduction of SOMO35 and AOT40 Different evolution in the 1990s and 2000s The trend depends on the metrics, less downward trends for the metrics influenced by the background
Sulfur and nitrogen compounds and particulate matter Ox. S Ox. N 60 to 90% reduction for Sulphur compounds over 20yrs 30 to 40% reduction for Nitrogen compounds over 20yrs 30% reductions of PM (10&2.5) for the 2000’s Red N. PM
Heavy Metals and POPs 60 to 80% reductions for Pb, Cd, HCB 30% for Hg & BaP
Way forward Publish the report as joint report: TFMM & Centres Possibility to submit peer reviewed articles Dissemination Showcase the importance of long term high-quality measurement Demonstrate the efficiency of mitigation measures, and the need to maintain efforts Support modelling analyses (Eurodelta-Trends)