Dr Ngoc NGUYEN Institute for International Relations, Vietnam Surge in demand for energy and implications for America’s Relations with Russia and China Dr Ngoc NGUYEN Institute for International Relations, Vietnam

Surge in demand for energy World energy use (1990 – 2020) (quadrillion BTU) (Source: http://eia.doe.gov/emeu/plugs/plieo001.html) 1990: 346 1999: 381.8 2010: 489.7 2020: 607.1

Increasing oil consumption of the US, Russia and China (million barrels/day) (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2006: 11) Countries 2002 2003 2004 2005 US 19.76 20.03 20.73 20.65 China 5.54 6.01 7.08 7.27 Russia 2.61 2.65 2.71 2.75

Increasing energy demand vs limited and non-renewable resources * Only ten world biggest oil consumers: nearly 50 million barrels ONE DAY (in 2005) * All world oil reserves: 1,200.7 billion barrels (in 2005) (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2006: 6, 11).

Implications: Conflict of Interests and Challenges to US Global Hegemony Iran: world fourth oil producer Central Asia: world second energy resources SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation): China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan Africa: Sudan Latin America

Iran US: pressure on Iran’s nuclear programme China: first buyer of Iranian oil Russia: increase political leverage China + Russia: opposed to UN Security Council’s embargo on Iran

Central Asia Russia: backyard, geopolitical and economic importance: agreements with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan. China: adjacent, easy to transport US: 3 aims: (i) access to rich resources, (ii) control Russia, (iii) contain China’s rise.

SCO (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) July 2005: ask for US’ withdrawal from Central Asia June 2006: SCO 6th summit: joined by Head of State from Iran, Pakistan, Mongolia and India: 6 SCO members and 4 observers: a quarter of world oil resources. Refusal to US’s request to be an observer of SCO

Africa: Sudan US approach > < China’s approach US: democracy, good governance, human rights  break relation China: non-intervention, non-ideological  Sudan is China’s biggest oil producer abroad

Latin America US’s ‘backyard’ and traditional oil exporter Return of left-wing movements in Latin America China’s intensive efforts and presence in the region challenge the order that US has set up and maintained.

THANK YOU FOR LISTENING