Business will be business: Latin America and the Middle East Dr. Guilherme Casarões IRI-USP June 2019

Latin America’s Middle East policies Assumption 1: given that Latin American countries have no direct interest in Middle Eastern geopolitics, they avoid taking sides in the region’s controversial issues Assumption 2: among the driving forces for Latin America’s Middle East policies are (1) relations with US; (2) demand for oil; (3) diplomatic traditions; (4) interest groups

Drivers of LatAm’s Middle East policies System-level National-level Bureaucracy-level Society-level Global orientation Pro-US Pro-Third World (BRA, MEX, ARG) Economic pragmatism Diplomatic traditions Non-intervention Peaceful settlement of disputes Interest groups Diaspora communities Issue-specific lobbying

Stages of LatAm’s Middle East policies 1947-1990: LatAm’s ME policies shaped by Cold War disputes 1947-1974: search for even-handedness (pro-US) 1974-1990: Arab demands split LatAm positions 1990-2013: LatAm adopts a ‘normal’ approach to Middle Eastern geopolitics 1990-2003: positions seconded Washington’s 2003-2013: positions distanced from Washington’s 2013-2019: Arab spring turmoil + Trump’s geopolitics

1947-1973: search for even-handedness LatAm strong multilateral engagement: UNGA Res 181 (1947, “Partition of Palestine”) 12 in favor (VEN, GUA, UGY, BRA), 1 against (CUB), 6 abstentions (ARG, CHI, COL, MEX) UNGA Res 194 (1948, “Refugees”) 13 in favor, 1 against (CUB), 6 abstentions UNGA Res 273 (1949, “Status of Israel”) 18 in favor, 2 abstentions (BRA, ELS) Between 1950s and 1960s, pro-Israeli positions under a balanced rhetoric (except for Cuba) UNSC Res 242 (“Six-Day War”): LatAm proposal of Israeli withdrawal from “all the occupied territories” replaced by British milder text

1974-1990: LatAm splits By 1974, Latin America did not correspond to more than 13 percent of UN membership (down from 40 percent in 1945) Yom Kippur War: pragmatic siding with Arab countries (and the Palestinian cause) Brazil became the second LatAm nation to host a PLO Information Officein 1975 - followed by Argentina (1976), Mexico (1976), and Chile (1979) UN Res 3379 (‘Zionism equals Racism’) highly divisive Yes: BRA, MEX, CUB, GUY, GRE No: Caribbean + UGY  Israeli Development Aid Policies Abstain: ARG, BOL, CHI, COL, ECU, GUA, PAR, PER, VEN Left-leaning Nicaragua and Cuba break off with Israel (1973, 1979) and recognize Palestine in 1988

1990-2003: normalization of relations Factors that led to LatAm’s change of position: The end of the Cold War and the rise of a unipolar order LatAm’s transition towards democracy and marked-oriented economies The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process (Madrid and Oslo) All Latin America (except Cuba) votes for revoking UNGA Res 3379 (through Res 46/86, dec/1991) Brazil’s Collor de Mello and Argentina’s Carlos Menem lead the initiative LatAm establishes diplomatic ties with the Palestinian National Authority Chile (1992), Brazil (1993), Mexico (1995), Argentina and Colombia (1996), Peru (1998)

2003-13: standing up for Palestine As many left-wing presidents came to power in the ‘pink tide’, LatAm foreign policies for the Middle East changed considerably South-South cooperation as the main element of regional engagement Autonomy vis à vis the US Mideast geopolitics begin engaging new actors (Iran, Palestine) Direct involvement in the Palestinian question: LatAm participates in the Annapolis (2007) and Sharm el-Sheikh (2009) conferences Brazil affirms itself as an ‘emerging donor’ in Palestine, Syria (via IBSA) Chile launches ‘Program of Medical Cooperation’ with Palestine Venezuela (2009), Bolivia (2009), and Nicaragua (2010) break diplomatic ties with Israel after the Gaza war Wave of regional recognition of Palestine VEN (2009), BRA (2010), followed by ARG, BOL, ECU (2010), CHI, GUY, PER, UGY, SUR, ELS, HON (2011), Central American (2011-2013), COL (2018)

Israel loses ground among traditional allies Costa Rica moves its embassy from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv in August 2006, and El Salvador immediately follows suit In February 2008, Costa Rica becomes the third country to officially recognize Palestinian sovereignty (20 years after Cuba and Nicaragua) Dominican president Leonel Fernández and Costa Rica’s Oscar Arias launch the Conference for Middle East Peace (2011) in San José Most LatAm countries in favor of UNGA Res 67/19 (2012)

2013-2019: crisis at home and abroad Crisis in the Middle East Syrian Civil War (2011-2019) New geopolitical axis (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey) Deadlock in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations LatAm moves away from Middle Eastern geopolitics Trade with GCC countries (oil, commodities) Cooler relations with Iran (greater sanctions after 2011) PNA demands lose traction as Hamas intensifies control over Gaza Trump’s election ushers in a new phase of pro-Israel positions Netanyahu’s LatAm tour in 2017 (ARG+PAR, COL, MEX) Trump’s embassy move controversy (2017): GUA, PAR, BRA

Fundação Getulio Vargas (EAESP-FGV) Dr. Guilherme Casarões Fundação Getulio Vargas (EAESP-FGV) casaroes@gmail.com @Gcasaroes on Twitter