Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services Ken Mylne on behalf of Paul Davies (Met Office, United Kingdom)

Holistic approach to impact and risk Major Uncertainty Some progress, still a limiting factor GEO-PHYSICAL HAZARD EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY Socio-Economic IMPACT QUANTIFYING & REDUCING RISK WEATHER & CLIMATE EXTREMES Considerable progress

Coping with Hurricanes/Typhoons Weather and climate extremes Weather analyses & forecast data Hurricane track, size, & intensity Storm surge, flooding, inundated areas Weather Translation to hazards Extraction of relevant information to predict hazards Affected population & infrastructure, disruption of services, damages due to wind & water, etc. Impact Estimation Placing into situational context Implementation of evacuation & recovery plans Reducing risk & response scenarios Mitigation strategies

CBS/OPAG-PWS: WMO Guidelines on Multi-Hazard Impact Based Forecast and Warning Services

Flood Guidance Statement Firstly, the Flood Forecasting Centre is a joint partnership between the Met Office and the Environment Agency (the government department responsible for flooding in England). With a remit to provide flood guidance for all sources of flooding. Our team of Hydrometeorologists is staffed by members of both organisations. I am an Environment Agency employee with a back ground in river flooding that has been trained as a Met Office forecaster. This is the Flood Guidance Statement that we produce. A flood risk forecast for today and the next four days, issued daily from the Flood Forecasting Centre. The flood risk is presented as a series of maps at county or local authority resolution with amplifying text and graphics. The flood risk is derived using the Flood Risk Matrix. 6

Simple Forecast v Observation Display Observed Impacts Flood Risk Forecast Likewise another simple output – this one a calendar comparing forecast and observation. Gives nothing in depth but could be useful for say an annual report or a customer visit. Remember all these displays can be filtered to the area and flood source of interest.

Simple Forecast v Observation Display Flood Risk Forecast Impact Forecast Impact Observation So now a quick look at the range of displays that can be produced. Starting with the simple: A forecast v observation display for each FGS. This simply displays the forecast flood risk, converts this into the forecast impact level and finally allows a comparison with the observed impacts. Very useful for case studies or customer visits but only shows a snapshot of our performance. 9

Inputting Observed Impacts A county level impact assessment is made. The flood source is also identified. Information is taken from news reports, social media, internal reporting, personal contact. Manually input to verification system. 10

Impact Assessment: supporting information Information may be added to support our impact assessment 11

Impact Assessment: supporting information Information may be added to support our impact assessment 12

Thank you for your attention