The easier, the better: Age, creatinine, ejection fraction score for operative mortality risk stratification in a series of 29,659 patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery  Marco Ranucci, MD, Serenella Castelvecchio, MD, Massimiliano Conte, MD, Gianluigi Megliola, MD, Giuseppe Speziale, MD, Flavio Fiore, MD, Fabio Guarracino, MD, Sabino Scolletta, MD, Ricardo Martinez Escobar, MD, Mauro Falco, MD, Elena Bignami, MD, Giovanni Landoni, MD  The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery  Volume 142, Issue 3, Pages 581-586 (September 2011) DOI: 10.1016/j.jtcvs.2010.11.064 Copyright © 2011 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Receiver operating characteristics analysis for the 3 models. ACEF, Age, creatinine, ejection fraction; AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval. The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2011 142, 581-586DOI: (10.1016/j.jtcvs.2010.11.064) Copyright © 2011 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Predicted versus observed operative mortality rates for deciles of risk distribution. ACEF, Age, creatinine, ejection fraction; CI, confidence interval; ES, European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation. The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2011 142, 581-586DOI: (10.1016/j.jtcvs.2010.11.064) Copyright © 2011 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions