Kaplan-Meier One Minus Survival plot showing cumulative progression to clinical arthritis for patients with clinically suspect arthralgia divided in four.

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Kaplan-Meier One Minus Survival plot showing cumulative progression to clinical arthritis for patients with clinically suspect arthralgia divided in four groups based on their baseline Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score. Kaplan-Meier One Minus Survival plot showing cumulative progression to clinical arthritis for patients with clinically suspect arthralgia divided in four groups based on their baseline Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score. Patients were appointed into quartiles according to their total HAQ score to create four subgroups with equal numbers (see online supplementary file 3). Each line represents one HAQ score quartile and cumulative progression to clinical arthritis. The lowest quartile contains patients with HAQ scores <0.25 with n=44 as the reference group. The second quartile contains HAQ scores 0.25–0.50 (n=62), with an HR for progression to clinical arthritis of 0.67 (95% CI=0.24 to 1.9). Patients in the third quartile had HAQ scores 0.63–0.88 (n=51), with an HR for progression to clinical arthritis of 1.3 (95% CI 0.49 to 3.4). Finally, the quartile with the highest HAQ scores contains HAQ scores ≥1.0 (n=47). The HR for this quartile (HR=2.50, 95% CI=1.03 to 6.10) was significantly elevated compared with the lowest quartile.  Robin M ten Brinck et al. RMD Open 2017;3:e000419 Copyright © BMJ Publishing Group & EULAR. All rights reserved.