Proposed Rogun Hydropower and Regional Reservoir Project (Rogun HPP) Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) Report by Panel of Experts* Almaty May 2011 Torkil Jønch Clausen (Chair) Erik Helland-Hansen * Desk review by Richard Fuggle and Frederic Giovannetti 1

PANEL OF EXPERTS PURPOSE OF FIRST VISIT Inception visit: Review of consultants Inception Report ( - detailed comments to consultants) Site visit Initial discussions with Government of Tajikistan and World Bank and consultants First impressions Questions and identification of some key issues/challenges 2

ROLE OF ESIA Independent comprehensive assessment: All environmental and social impacts -positive and negative -all stages: construction through operation -all affected areas, from reservoir to Aral Sea Based on good international practice Sound basis for national and regional assessment 3

ESIA and TEAS Two studies - two consultants - two POEs ONE Rogun HPP Need for close coordination, on e.g. Hydrology Geology Economics Dam optimization, cost and operations 4

THE BASIN CONTEXT Rogun HPP in Vakhsh-Amu Darya context: Vakhsh River contributing some 20-30% of Amu Darya flow Upstream of Nurek Dam (300 m, initial reservoir 10.5 cu.km.) Upstream in Vakhsh cascade Potential incremental impacts to be seen in basin context, and extent of project impacts defined 5

THE NUREK DAM Nurek HPP: Similar size as Rogun HPP Operation for hydropower (3000 MW) with irrigation off-takes Effective sediment trap Almost 40 years of operational and impact experience Need to draw on Nurek lessons learned 6

CATCHMENT AND RESERVOIR Some key biophysical issues: Highly naturally erosive upstream catchment Loss of fertile agricultural land Deep stratified reservoir Marginal human influence on upper catchment Particular focus on future reservoir behavior/conditions 7

RESETTLEMENT Resettlement in progress – a promising start: Formation of Directorate Resettlement of several households in progress Concern about former Soviet resettlement legacy Compensation or enhancement? Start Public Consultation and Disclosure Plan early 8

DAM SITE ISSUES Some site visit impressions: Deficiencies in occupational health conditions Site preparation, waste and land management challenging Accident records/analyses as basis for improvement Immediate focus on site conditions 9

DOWNSTREAM ISSUES - THE SETTING - Rogun HPP downstream impacts: On the Nurek HHP From Nurek to Vakhsh/Pyanj confluence Downstream Amu Darya from confluence Vakhsh/Pyanj Need for factual information Dialogue among riparians (Nukus Declaration spirit) 10

DOWNSTREAM ISSUES - KEY ANALYSES - Rogun HPP downstream impact assessment calls for: Strong focus on hydrology: entire Basin, agreed datasets (TEAS- ESIA cooperation) Nurek history/experience Impacts in Vakhsh cascade context Assessment now: Stage 1, alternatives/SEA, Stage 2 Hydrometry stations on both Vakhsh and Pyanj 11

PARTICULAR COORDINATION ISSUES Rogun HPP alternatives: Study of power supply options of Tajikistan - including Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) - including analysis of alternatives Optimization of dam height Scheduling and coordination challenge 12

CLIMATE CHANGE Climate change analysis included in TOR, but adequately? Hydrologic stationarity problem => uncertain flow estimates Downstream impacts from entire basin Need for up-to -date, state-of-art analysis of entire basin Need for risk management approaches 13

SUMMARY OF KEY DRIVERS AND RECOMMENDATIONS KEY DRIVERS FOR THE ANALYSIS 1.Basin hydrology 2.Dam height 3.Reservoir operations KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ESIA PROCES 1.Coordinate TEAS and ESIA closely 2.Assess Rogun HPP in the wider basin context 3.Give immediate attention to site conditions and occupational health 4.Promote dialogue and information sharing among riparians 5.More attention to climate change 6.Incorporate lessons learned from Nurek HPP 14

THANK YOU 15