Shuyi S. Chen1 Wei Zhao1, Ralph Foster2, W. Timothy Liu3

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Presentation transcript:

Improving Tropical Cyclone Prediction Using Scatterometer Surface Winds in Model Initialization Shuyi S. Chen1 Wei Zhao1, Ralph Foster2, W. Timothy Liu3 1Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami 2Applied Physics Lab., University of Washington 3Jet Propulsion Lab., California Institute of Technology NASA/NOAA CIOSS workshop, 8-10 February 2005, Miami, FL

OBJECTIVES To develop initialization method for high-resolution hurricane research and future prediction model (e.g., WRF) using scatterometer winds.

TRMM TMI

NCEP

Sensitivity to Initial Vortex Structure

Hurricane Bonnie, 1200 UTC August 1998

MM5 simulated rain rate, 1800 UTC 23 August 1998 Control Symmetrized

MM5 simulated rain rate, 1800 UTC 25 August 1998 Control Symmetrized

Initialization Method Construct 3-D vortex using QuikSCAT winds Generate dynamically/thermodynamically balanced initial vortex using 4DVar QSCAT winds UW inverse PBL model SLP (swath) Blend with NCEP SLP gradient winds Weighted vertical Distribution of wind 4DVar 3-D Winds QSACT Balanced vortex (temp, ght, wind) BestTrack minSLP Prediction model (WRF, MM5)

Hurricane Floyd, 12-17 September 1999

Hurricane Floyd

Isabel

SeaWinds Fabian Isabel Isabel Fabian

Hurricane Fabian (2003) Full Partial Aug 30 0000 UTC 1200 31 Sep 01 02 04 05 06 SW 0135 1359 (SW) 0110 1334 0225 1450 1424 0251 1515 SW 0225 SW 1450 QS 0901 2125 (QS) 0835 2059 2213 0924 2148 2303 2236 0946 Full Partial

Conclusions Improved high spatial resolution (12.5 km) QuikSCAT data provides a better description of tropical cyclone surface wind, especially near the inner core. Initial vortex based on the QuikSCAT derived SLP and wind has a positive impact on hurricane intensity forecast. Tandem missions could provide more than doubled coverage for hurricane prediction than a single QuikSCAT or SeaWind mission.