The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition Women worldwide are having fewer children in their lifetimes, from an average of five children born per woman in the 1950s to below three in 2000. All of the most recent projections put forth by the UN assume that levels of childbearing will continue to decline in the next century. Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Pre-transition Fluctuating high birth rate and death rates Very high fertility (+8 kids) due to high infant mortality rates Natural increase is stable Births=deaths (stable population) Pre-industrial phase (agricultural based economy, low level of technology (hunter/gatherer)) Low life expectancy Population is mainly rural No countries are here anymore (core countries – pre 1800’s, periphery pre-1950)

Early-transition Birth rate still very high, but declining (5-6+ kids) Sharp decline in death rate large natural increase leads to population explosion Start of death control Death rates drop due to acceptance of germ theory - small lifestyle changes can prevent disease: personal sanitation (handwashing), clean drinking water, pest control (mosquito nets), waste/sewage disposal Increase in life expectancy due to healthier lifestyle Agriculture still dominant economic activity/rural population Core countries early 1800’s, periphery early 1900’s

Late-transition sharp decline in birth rates; fertility rates drop to 3-4 low death rates continue natural increase declines (therefore population explosion tapers off at end of late-transition when BR and DR come closer to one another) Start of birth control Shift from agricultural to industrial based economy More people now living in urban areas (fewer needed on farms due to shift in economy – urban boom starts) Life expectancy continues to increase Core late 1800’s/early 1900’s, and periphery mid-late 1900’s

Post-transition Low but equal birth and death rates Fertility rates are at or slightly above replacement rates (2.1) Natural increase stable or starting to decline Stable population with low birth/death rates Post-industrial service based economy Majority of people live in cities Core 1970’s onward, periphery not here yet

Stage 5 Post-Post transition?? Declining population Death rate is higher than birth rate Fertility below 2.1 Great many older people (and some big problems in the future)