AMRA’s contribution to WP4

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Presentation transcript:

AMRA’s contribution to WP4 T4.4 Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment

Main Objectives (AMRA’s): Development of hybrid physical/stochastic modelling capacities as the base of non-stationary PSHA; Development of a Traffic-lights system for induced seismicity control and alert procedures

Main Objectives (AMRA): Development of hybrid physical/stochastic modelling to forecast future seismicity rates: Non-stationary stochastic modelling (e.g., n-etas) and Bayesian data analysis; Physical parameters, as e.g., stress change distribution, fault planes distribution, relationships with technological data; Consideration of source mechanisms in the modelling of seismic wavefield and development of GMPE

Main Objectives (AMRA): Non-stationary models, taking into account the relationship with technological data; Development and implementation of advanced hybrid physical/stochastic modelling to forecast future seismicity rates: Physical parameters, as e.g., stress change distribution, fault planes distribution, relationship; Non-stationary stochastic modelling (e.g., n-etas) and Bayesian data analysis;

Matteo Picozzi, Aldo Zollo Task 4.4. Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment (Task Leader: Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal – AMRA) Contribution of AMRA-RISSC on the analysis of induced seismicity Development of a Traffic-lights system for induced seismicity control and alert procedures Matteo Picozzi, Aldo Zollo Seismological Laboratory (RISSC-Lab)* Department of Physics, University of Naples Federico II *In project SHEER, RISSC-Lab is Third Party of AMRA scarl for research activities within WP4 (Tasks 4.1 and 4.4) SHEER – Kick-off-Meeting, Krakow, 05.05.2015

SHEER – Kick-off-Meeting, Krakow, 05.05.2015 The activity of injection/extraction of fluids can change the characteristics of the medium and the properties of occurrence of earthquakes Aim Development of a Traffic-lights system for induced seismicity control and alert procedures. Method The time-dependent PSHA approach proposed by Convertito et al. (2012). 50% probability that PGA < 1m/s^2 in the next 2 months Hazard analysis function of time: comparison of PGA observed with levels of acceleration expected with a given probability for a period of two months SHEER – Kick-off-Meeting, Krakow, 05.05.2015