Emissions What are the most sensitive parameters in emissions to improve model results (chemical species, spatio-temporal resolution, spatial distribution,

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Presentation transcript:

emissions What are the most sensitive parameters in emissions to improve model results (chemical species, spatio-temporal resolution, spatial distribution, activities and emission factors...). Is it possible to quantify their effects? Need for gridded emissions : appropriate spatial distribution Appropriate spatial Resolution : with the improvement of model resolution Non-inventoried emissions : biogenic emissions, forest fires, dusts, resuspension, Completeness of emissions over the targeted domain Temporal resolution: to catch episodes and highest concentration levels What are the gaps in emission inventories related activities that need to be quickly filled in (pollutants, sources, emission factors ....)? Chemical composition by sector: PPM, Hg, PAHs, VOCs, dioxines and furanes, PCBs : not only for modelling but also for measurements use (source-receptor approaches), and impact analysis (exposure) EC/OC emissions : not only for modelling but also for policy issues Non inventoried emissions: common practises, common databases (soil properties, land use, forest composition....) Historical sets of emissions : to learn from the past Common practises to disaggregate emission data (to improve spatial resolution): use of proxies, which ones... Information related to emissions to other medias : databases, references...

Based on your experience what is level of consistency between global, regional, national and local emission inventories? What is the required level of agreement? Poor.... Need to access to global scale “reference” emissions : what to learn from GEIA (Global Emission InitiAtive); Need to know about existing national high resolved spatialised emission inventories : how many, where... Pilot study to assess their consistency with officially reported data; definition of new methodologies, proxies? Need for feedback, explanations about huge differences between countries: due to national legislation, energy policies, economical reasons What’s about the FAIRMODE initiative (for the link with the local scale) Comparison with scientific oriented inventories : what to learn from GEIA (Global Emission InitiAtive) Do you use the official EMEP emission inventory?? For which objectives?

What observations/modelling tools can be used to improve emission inventories? Running models is a good way to track potential problems in spatialised emission inventories : is there an interest for the emission community? Is it possible that some measurements could help in improving emission data : VOCs, heavy metals... Inverse modelling techniques (also developed for checking emission reporting) Are there requests from the Emission Community ? Common projects and objectives (e.g. HM pilot study)? Do such objectives fit with policy framework? How those requirements could be taken into account? There is no obligations for Parties who did not ratify the Protocols Obligations are strictly limited to pollutants and parameters listed in the Protocols At this stage emission reporting and review are already an heavy task for the Parties -> difficult to ask more, except if there are policy justifications (e.g. “black carbon”) Is it better to have “something highly uncertain” than “nothing “-> community of practises, priorities

Measurement and modelling: what do we know about trends From your experience, would you say that observed and modelled trends of the air pollutants are in agreement with trends in emissions? (for each individual pollutant: for annual averages? for peak/episodes indicators?) What are the measured trends (for both annual and episode indicators) and of air quality in Europe? Is it possible to “classify” European regions considering those trends? Is it possible to establish modelled trends and maps of trends (for both annual and episode indicators)? Are measured and modelled trends consistent for the air pollutants monitored by the Convention? Which measurement data are still missing for model improvement?

Trends : an issue for the TFMM work plan (2014-2015) ? Review of available material : EMEP centers, national trends analyses, scientific publications review of the needs for complementary data and new model runs ; specifications Methodology to calculate and compare modelled and observed trends Feedback to policy makers (within the Gothenburg assessment initiative ?)