Maximising the quality of population estimates from the 2011 UK census Owen Abbott, Garnett Compton, Cal Ghee 30 September 2013

Agenda Strategic aim 2001 v 2011 Maximising quality Hard to count populations Measuring undercount Results Conclusions

2001 evaluation £

2011 strategic aim Aim: Maximise overall response Minimise variation in response Quality targets: Overall response rate 94%, AND All local authorities > 80%

2001  ?             

2011  i www.

Simulations  

Components of strategy Hard to count index Questionnaire content and design Census collection and design Communications Coverage assessment

Components of strategy Hard to count index Questionnaire content and design Census collection and design Communications Coverage assessment

Hard to Count      f1? f2? f3? f4? f5?     

Hard to count Index HTC-1 40% of LSOAs (easiest) HTC-2 40% of LSOAs HTC-5 2% of LSOAs (hardest)

Census collection HtC-1 HtC-2 HtC-3 HtC-4 HtC-5

Census collection     i www.             

Consistency across areas/HtC        

Measuring undercount   

HtC HtC age/sex Measuring undercount Coverage survey Dual-system estimation Ratio estimation HtC age/sex

Census response rates, 2001 and 2011

2011 and 2001 response rates, by age and sex

i  HtC  Summary   Aim: Maximise overall response Minimise variation in response HtC www. i    