The Development of Water Policy and Climate Change Water Directors Meeting Athens, GR June 2003 Climate change is going to have a major impact on water resources in Europe Likely to require changes in the way that we manage and protect these resources. Knowledge Base Detailed predictions concerning the possible consequences of climate change? Have they been developed on the basis of common scenarios? Do we know enough about the possible impacts of climate change? Relationship Between Climate Change and Water Policy in the EU is it foreseen that there will changes to the direction of water policy foresee what possible changes may be necessary at EU level Water Directors and Climate Change Synthesis of scientific knowledge on Climate Change and the Water Dimension

IES-JRC will coordinate the preparation of a report on CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE EUROPEAN WATER DIMENSION Objective: To prepare a scientific synthesis on Climate Change and the European Water Dimension Coordinator: IES-JRC (steven.eisenreich@jrc.it) Timelines: Invite comments on the strategy and draft outline at and after the Informal Water Directors Meeting in Rome November 2003 Preparation of working draft of the scientific synthesis for consideration by the Water Directors in Dublin June 2004 Final Synthesis Document - September 2004 Approx. Length: ~100-115 pages

IES-JRC will co-ordinate the preparation of a report on CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE EUROPEAN WATER DIMENSION Information Sources: IPCC ACACIA European Research Global Research Contributors: MS Experts on various sub-topics; IES-JRC Experts DG-RTD Anticipate hosting 2-3 specialty workshops consisting of European experts on key sub-topic areas (e.g., climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems) Final Synthesis Document - Approx. Length: ~100-115 pages

CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE EUROPEAN WATER DIMENSION Executive Summary What we know; what we do not know; recommendations Introduction Climate drivers and components sensitive to climate change Part A. Climate Change at the Global Scale (~ 10 pages) Part B. Climate Change at the European Scale (~10 pages) Part C. Climate Change and Aquatic Ecosystems (~45 pages) Part D. Case Studies on Climate Change (~40 pages)

Part A. Climate Change at the Global Scale CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE EUROPEAN WATER DIMENSION Part A. Climate Change at the Global Scale Global Scene Earth’s surface temperature record (lower atmosphere?) last 140 years; last 1000 years Precipitation Snow/ice cover Sea level rise Extremes Mountain regions? Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Global radiative forcing – general discussion Record of CO2, CH4 and NO over time Other important radiative species – S04, aerosol, halocarbons, others? Modelling and simulation of Global System – future projections Temperature Sea Level Rise Extreme Events (Table 4, P. 72, IPCC) Others: El Nino, SO, SST, NAO Thermohaline circulation (relevance to Europe, N. Atlantic)

CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE EUROPEAN WATER DIMENSION Part B. Climate Change at the European Scale Regional Climate Projections – Europe Northern Europe Temperature Precipitation Wind Mediterranean Sea Mountain Regions Impacts in European Coastal Areas Sea level rise Coastal erosion Future of Med. Coastal lagoons Floods at European Regional Scale

CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE EUROPEAN WATER DIMENSION Part C. Climate Change and Aquatic Ecosystems (~45 pages) Lakes Rivers Wetlands Coastal Systems Water-Borne Pathogens & Disease(s) Changes in Biogeochemical cycles (C,N,P,others) Inland Coastal/Marine Part D. Case Studies on Climate Change (~25 pages) Case Study Lake(s) Case Study River(s) Case Study River Basins Case Study Coastal Lagoons Case Study – Implementation of WFD and Marine Strategy and Climate Change Climate Change and Water-Borne Disease Contaminant Cycling and Climate Change (Global and Regional) Hg; POPs, PBTs