John Husing, Ph.D. Chief Economist, IEEP The Inland Empire Why The Explosive Growth? Issues We Face! John Husing, Ph.D. Chief Economist, IEEP

Inland Empire Population Greater Than 25 of 50 States

Population Forecast, 2018-2045 2045: 6,119,497 1,111,783

Job Forecast, 2015-2040 2040: 2,100,712 710,402

Ethnicity

Non-Citizen Population

Inland Empire’s Powerful Job Growth!

Inland Empire A CA Job Engine!

Shares of 2011-2018 Job Growth

So. CA Housing Affordability

No. CA Housing Affordability

Price Competition Highest Price Gaps In History

Housing Market Consequences Lack of New Housing Construction In High-End Counties NIMBY Opposition to Affordable Workforce Housing Downzoning by City Councils CEQA Allows Easy Lawsuits to Stop Projects State Solution: Force Population Into Attached Urban Units Marginally Educated Force To Move … Inland Counties Deal With the Results: School Challenges Workforce Qualifications Poverty

Adult Educational Levels Dictate Blue Collar/Technical Jobs

Median Household Income, 2017

Share in Poverty, 2017 23.5% 16.4%

Gold Mine Theory Secondary Tier Primary Tier 21%

Sector Job Growth 2011-2018 2011-2018 10.7% of Job Growth 2011-2018

Median Health Care Pay: 2018 $62,363

ACA & Health Care Demand -60% Drop in Uninsured

Rationale: Health Providers Paid 65% of Medicaid Costs ACA Attacks 2019 Forecast: 4,800 Rationale: Health Providers Paid 65% of Medicaid Costs Shortage of Trained Workers ACA Attacks

Logistics

Median Logistics Pay: 2018 $47,946

Educational Requirement for Position Skill Ladders Based on Education for Position Median Pay Warehousing, Inland Empire 2017 Educational Requirement for Position  Experienced All Workers Entry Level Share of Jobs Work Experience, Plus Bachelor's or Higher $65.84 $47.81 $32.96 7.7% Bachelor's Degree $36.54 $28.98 $23.04 6.3% Work Experience $30.56 $24.02 $18.88 4.8% Associates Degree $33.66 $26.16 $20.62 1.2% Post-Secondary Vocational Education $40.83 $28.45 $22.64 4.7% Long-Term On-the-Job Training $32.21 $24.78 $18.97 5.7% Moderate-Term On-the-Job Training $34.25 $24.49 $17.72 26.9% Short-Term On-the-Job Training $19.65 $15.12 $12.21 42.8% Wholesale Trade Sector $30.59 $22.75 $17.26 100.0% No Schooling After High School $26.09 $19.47 $14.94 80.1% Trade or Community College $39.39 $27.99 $22.24 5.9% Bachelor's Or More $52.69 $39.36 $28.51 14.0%

E-Commerce 14.5%

Port Container Import Volume Record Levels

Net Industrial Absorption 21.9 Milllion

New Industrial Construction 3.5% Vacancy

2019 Forecast: 9,000 Rationale: Running Out of Land in the Valley Areas Tariffs Shortage of Trained Middle Managers U.S. Growth Slowdown

AQMD: Indirect Source Rule Attempt To Make Warehousing Operations Pay For Trucks Coming To Them To Slow Sector’s Growth Slowing Growth Would Close Opportunities For Marginally Educated Workers Robert Woods Johnson Public Health Research on What Causes Public Health Problems: Socio-Economics Issues (poverty, lack of jobs) 40% Population Health Behaviors Related to Poverty 30% Access to Medical Care due to Poverty 20% Environmental Issues 10% 90% Source: Different Perspectives For Assigning Weights To Determinants of Health, University of Wisconsin, Public Health Institute, 2010

ONT Airport Cargo Another Record Volume 14.8% 1.0%

2018 Median Manufacturing Pay $54,800 Lack of Growth Closes Opportunities For Marginally Educated Workers

CA Electrical Cost +83.5% +135.4%

2019 Forecast: 1,000 Rationale: Regulation & CA Electrical Costs Automation Tariffs Shortage of Replacement Skilled Workers U.S. Growth Slowdown

Median Construction Pay: 2018 $53,322 Slower Growth Hurts Opportunities For Marginally Educated Workers

Home Prices +4.6% -10.1%

Industrial Construction

2019 Forecast: 6,000 Rationale: Difficulty Permitting Lots CA Environmental Quality Act Very High Prices, Low Volume, Lack of Supply Shortage of Skilled Craft Workers

Median Private High-End Pay: 2018 $76,202

Low Educational Attainment

ONT Airport Passengers 1989 Level 12.4% 4.2% 1988-2018 Population: up 2.4 million or 108.2% to 4.6 million Job Level: up 864,502 or 133.5% to 1,512,194 Companies: up 75,133 or 187.3% to 75,133

2019 Forecast: 3,500 Rationale: Education Gap To Coastal Counties Government Tax Revenue Difficulty (internet) Professionals Serve IE From Coastal Offices

Median Moderate Paying & Real Estate, Finance, Education Jobs: 2018 $57,109

Home Volume: No Growth

2019 Forecast: 3,900 Rationale: Banks Hiring Less Real Estate Sales Not Growing School Budget Growth May Slow

Population Serving Sectors High End Consumers Still Doing Well E-commerce death 3rd Strongest Inland Sector

Population Serving Sector Pay: 2018 $32,177

2019 Forecast: 9,900 Rationale: E-Commerce Hurts Retailing Lack of Available Workers (4.2% Unemployment) Workers Going to Logistics

2019 Forecast 2019 = 38,200 v. 2018 = 49,300 Growth 2.52% 3.36% Unemployment 4.2% 4.2% 2018 = 49,300 Growth 3.36% Unemployment 4.2%

Questions?

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