The EEA’s work on energy and transitions Dr Hans Bruyninckx I 10 March 2016 I European Environment Agency, Copenhagen The EEA’s work on energy and transitions

Transitions thinking is built into EEA medium-term planning Strategic area 1: Informing policy implementation Strategic area 2: Assessing systemic challenges “Goal: To assess systemic challenges in the context of short-, medium- and long-term transitions, and to signal opportunities for (re)framing/recalibrating environmental policy to facilitate transition towards a more sustainable society in Europe.” Strategic area 3: Knowledge co-creation, sharing and use

1: Informing policy implementation Air pollution, transport and noise Industrial pollution Climate change mitigation and energy Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation Water management, resources and ecosystems Marine and maritime, fisheries and coastal Biodiversity, ecosystems, agriculture and forests Urban, land use and soil Waste and material resources

2: Assessing systemic challenges Resource-efficient economy and the environment Environment, human health and well-being Megatrends and transitions Sustainability assessments and state of the environment reporting

Climate change mitigation and energy activities Inventory Projections National policies and measures ‘Proxy’ inventory (Y-1) International MRV Effort Sharing Decision review Emission Trading System Cars and Vans EU Monitoring Mechanism (2004 Decision > 2013 Regulation) GHG emissions Indicators ‘Proxy’ Energy efficiency index Energy efficiency Indicators ‘Proxy’ National action plans Progress reports Renewable energy

The European environment – state and outlook 2015 (SOER 2015) A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks. SOER 2015 informs policy implementation and reflects on opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and innovations in line with the 2050 vision of the 7th EAP. SOER 2015 Synthesis report SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends 11 briefings Global megatrends 25 briefings European briefings 9 briefings Cross-country comparisons 39+3 briefings Countries and regions

The policy context has evolved Source: EEA Multiannual Work Programme 2014–2018

Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme ‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits. Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society.’ Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme

Key messages from SOER 2015 Policies have delivered substantial benefits for the environment, economy and people’s well-being; major challenges remain Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production and consumption systems, and the rapidly changing global context Achieving the 2050 vision requires system transitions, driven by more ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovation Doing so presents major opportunities to boost Europe’s economy and employment and put Europe at the frontier of science and innovation © Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA

Efficiency gains in energy Economic growth Index: 1990 = 100 Resource use We have become more efficient at using energy. But our growing economy means that final energy consumption in the EU has not changed greatly since 1990. Since 76 % of primary energy consumption in 2011 was from fossil fuels, this places enormous pressure on the planet. On present trends, we are not making a transition to a low-carbon economy. Efficiency gains Source: EEA (CSI 028)

Efficiency gains in the transport system (SLIDE 14) In transport, the stock of cars in the EU-27 has been continuously increasing since 1990. And at the same time, kilometres travelled increased at nearly the same pace. As a result, fuel consumption has increased in spite of the fact that cars are more efficient.

Efficiency gains in the residential system Growth Resource use (SLIDE 13) Similar trends are at work in housing and transport. Homes are more energy efficient, but this is partly offset by the growth in the floor area. So overall fuel consumption goes up. Efficiency Source: ENER 037 indicator

System innovation: stylized optimism Source: UNEP (2011)

System innovation: qualified optimism Source: van der Brugge & de Haan (2005)

System innovation: the complex and malleable reality Landscape Landscape developments put pressure on existing regime Markets and consumer preferences Science Industry Regime Culture Policy Technology The regime is dynamically stable New configuration breaks through, taking advantage of ‘windows of opportunity’. Adjustments occur in regime Niches Small networks of actors support innovation on the basis of expectations and visions. Learning and experiments take place Time Source: based on Geels & Schot (2007)

EU decarbonisation objectives

Selected publications Annual Trends and projections in Europe report, tracking progress in reducing GHG emissions, improving EE and increasing RES consumption across the EU and its Member States. Renewable energy in Europe report, providing detail on the evolution and benefits of individual RES technologies. Energy support and its impact on innovation in renewable energy. Energy and environment indicators (annual). Development of an Energy Efficiency Index, as means to better understand real improvements in EE. Assessment of carbon lock-in risks in the EU power sector (upcoming).

Thank you Hans.Bruyninckx@eea.europa.eu Sign up to receive EEA news, reports and alerts on your areas of interest at http://eea-subscriptions.eu/subscribe eea.europa.eu

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The overall picture: Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy Safeguarding from environmental risks to health Past (5–10) year trends   20+ years outlook   / Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.