2 Division of Geriatrics, McGill University Center, Montreal How does the physical health of Canadian seniors fare over a three year period? Trajectories from the NuAge Study Sabrina Figueiredo, PhD1,3, Jose Morais MD PhD2, Nancy E. Mayo, PhD1,2, 3 1 School of Physical & Occupational Therapy, Faculty of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal 2 Division of Geriatrics, McGill University Center, Montreal 3 Division of Clinical Epidemiology, McGill University Health Center, Montreal Expecting the same level of deterioration from all seniors is a misconception (WHO) The current problem Literature on age-related changes report estimates of change as single mean. Traditional regression or growth-curve model overestimates such changes for some and underestimate for others. The solution Objectives To describe trajectories of physical health over a 3-year period among Canadian seniors . To identify factor’s associated with deteriorating physical health. Participants Quebec Longitudinal Study on Nutrition and Successful Aging (NuAGE). Community dwelling seniors living in Montreal, Laval, Sherbrooke. Inclusion criteria: French or English, free of disabilities, no cognitive impairment, able to walk one block or to climb one flight of stairs without rest. Exclusion criteria: heart failure ≥ to Class 2, COPD requiring oxygen therapy or oral steroids, inflammatory digestive diseases, or cancer in the past five years. Participants characteristics at study entry Trajectories of physical health (n = 1781 seniors) 519 seniors (PCS intercept = 26, 39, 46) started at values well below Canadian norms but remained stable over time. 1,265 seniors (PCS intercept = 51, 51, 55) had values above Canadian norms. Among the 3-above the norm groups, 1 group showed persistent excellent health (PCS intercept = 55) and 2 groups started with very good physical health (PCS intercept = 51) but 1 showed a drastic deterioration. Risk factors of deterioration Protective factor against deterioration Methods 49,500 eligible participants from RAMQ. 18,695 randomly selected. 1,783 seniors included. Annual follow-up from 2004 to 2009 included measures of socio-demographic, biological, nutritional, medical, functional, and social behavior status. Physical health was assessed using the SF-36 Physical Component Summary (PCS). Analysis Group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) identified clusters of similar physical health trajectories over 4-time points Participants with missing data at all 4-time points were excluded Model fit was assessed using the Bayesian and Akaike’s information criteria. Posterior probability of group membership was (p >.7). Logistic regression identified predictors of physical health deterioration among those with excellent or very good physical health (n= 1,265). Conclusion RESULTS Characteristics N, % Age, mean (SD) range 74 (4) 67-84 Women, n (%) 940 (53%) Physical health, mean (SD) range 49 (8) 19-68 Body Weight, mean (SD) range 73 (14) 34-131 Depression, mean (SD) range 5 (4) 0-25 Self-rated physical activity, mean (SD) range 100 (50) 0-64 Group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM), was applied to identify distinct aging trajectories. To date, this work is the first to document trajectories of physical health in seniors Posterior probability ranges from 0.76-0.82 Predictor of deterioration Odds Ratio 95%CI Heavier body weight 1.31/30kg difference 1.12-1.78 More depressive symptoms 1.08 1.03-1.15 Inactive, seniors with excess weight and depressive symptoms do not age well. Preventive health strategies should target obesity and depression in Older Adults. Protective factor Odds Ratio 95%CI Higher physical activity (PA) 0.69 / 30% more PA 0.48-0.96 sabrina.figueiredo@mcgill.ca