RISK RATING GUIDE APPENDIX C LIKELIHOOD RATING Rating Description Timeframe Chance to Occur Almost Certain 5 Expected to occur unless circumstances change Event is likely to occur in a one year time period 91 - 100% Likely 4 Will probably occur in most circumstances Event is likely to occur in a two year time period 50 - 90% Possible 3 Might occur under current circumstances Event is likely to occur in a five year time period 30 - 49% Unlikely 2 Could occur only if circumstances change Event is likely to occur in a ten year time period 5 - 29% Rare 1 May occur only in exceptional circumstances Event is not likely to occur in a ten year time period < 5% Rating IMPACT RATING STRATEGIC OPERATIONAL COMPLIANCE FINANCIAL Extreme 5 Prevents the achievement to one or more strategic directions. Major shift or impact on strategy Strong criticism by external review agencies, and/or long-term or widespread impact to reputation & credibility of WRHA. Major or long term impact on external stakeholder relationships. Significant and long term effect on quality of care, patient safety and/or access to care. Extreme and widespread service disruption. Litigation relating to adverse events that resulted in serious harm or death. Major legal or contractual impact >$50 million Major 4 Significantly reduces ability to achieve one or more strategic directions. Some shift in strategy required. Medium-term and/or widespread effect on reputation. Significant and long term external stakeholder effect. Significant or long term effect on quality, patient safety and/or access to services. Disruption in delivery of essential services or sustained loss of support services. Significant litigation and/or contractual exposure and impact. $10 to $50 million Moderate 3 Disrupts achieving one of the strategic directions. Some criticism by external review agencies, short-term effect on reputation and/or localized media attention. Minimal impact on external stakeholder relationships. Service disruption localized or short-term. Minimal impact on quality, patient safety or access to services. Threat of lawsuit due to non-compliance with legislation, regulations, contractual agreement or WRHA policies. $1 to $10 million Minor 2 Results in minimal disruption to one of the strategic directions. Minimum local media attention and patient relations can be restored. Some threat to efficient and/or effectiveness of some services. Little or no impact on quality, patient safety or access to services. Non-compliance is restricted to low risk areas and have minimal exposure to litigation. <$1 Million Negligible 1 No impact on strategic directions. Rumourrs; no media attention. Virtually no impact on ability to deliver services. Non-compliance with internal standards having no exposure to litigation and no impact on patient care None