Atmospheric Predictability Group BSc. Seminar Presented by: Jake Casselman (CHN P16.1 jake.casselman@env.ethz.ch)

Research Topic of Group: Large-scale dynamics and predictability of the atmosphere, primarily over Europe. Remote impacts on Europe from the tropics and their predictability Stratosphere - troposphere coupling Predictability of extreme events on S2S timescales Timeseries and predictability analysis for the stratosphere and the NAO/AO

Revisiting the ENSO Teleconnection to the Tropical North Atlantic García-Serrano, Javier, et al. (2017) Considers the robust teleconnection between the Pacific and Atlantic Uses Reanalysis Datasets Found that weakening trade winds, caused by a secondary Gill-type response, could act as a forth mechanism

Impact of ENSO longitudinal position on teleconnection to the NAO Zhang, Wenjun, et al. (2018) Considers the complex relationship between the NAO and ENSO by splitting ENSO into central and eastern events Uses Reanalysis Datasets in addition to a global atmospheric model Found that central events are linear and eastern events are nonlinear

Multidecadal modulation of El Nino influence on the Euro-Mediterranean rainfall López‐Parages, Jorge, and Belén Rodríguez‐Fonseca(2012) Considers the non-stationary nature of ENSO teleconnections over Europe through the natural multidecadal modes of: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Uses gridded data indices and principle component analysis Found that the modulating factor during late winter and spring was AMO, while PDO was the main factor during the fall