2016 – 2036 Washoe County Consensus Forecast

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Presentation transcript:

2016 – 2036 Washoe County Consensus Forecast WRWC Agenda Item 8 Jeremy M. Smith, TMRPA 8/17/2016

2016 Consensus Forecast What is a “consensus” forecast? Combination of several sources Why use a consensus approach? Minimize bias and tends to increase accuracy 2nd definition of consensus –> align community outlook How is it used in our region? Context for long-range planning efforts Slide 1 What is a consensus forecast? -in a basic sense it is a forecast created by combining several forecasts from different sources -in this case we’re talking about population -also can refer to the agreement by regional agencies and partners to share a common vision of the future and to align planning efforts around shared assumptions Why use consensus forecasting as an approach? -useful if there is a high degree of uncertainty or risk in the future of what is being predicted -pooling forecasts has as tendency to increase accuracy -washes out any one particular bias in forecasting method that may be present in an independent forecast Who’s using the consensus forecast? -used at TMRPA to help guide our spatial disaggregation of future population -RTC for traffic demand modeling and in the Regional Road Impact Fee program -will be used to inform the 2016 Regional Water Management Plan -the Washoe County School District has used it as a reference in their planning -the jurisdictions

Data sources Assessment of forecasted population and employment growth; performed every 2 years by TMRPA to inform planning efforts across the region. Sources Nevada State Demographer Truckee Meadows Water Authority Woods and Poole IHS – Global Insight

2016 Consensus Forecast The consensus forecast also projects: Changes in age cohorts Income levels Employment by industry Jurisdictional splits Slide 4 The consensus forecast also projects increases in; changes in age cohorts employment income levels Jurisdictional splits How future population is distributed among the three jurisdictions of Reno, Sparks and the unincorporated county This really helps us spatially assign future growth If this body votes to approve than I will take this item to the Regional Planning Commission for final approval next Wednesday, Sept. 24th. With that I’d like to turn it back to Jim Smitherman.

Questions?