The Added Value of User-Driven Climate Predictions

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Presentation transcript:

The Added Value of User-Driven Climate Predictions 29 May 2019 The Added Value of User-Driven Climate Predictions F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Donat, D. Verfaillie, B. Solaraju, R. Bilbao, D. Bojovic, M. Terrado, I. Christel, S. Wild

Near term: Sector readiness In all sectors there are potential applications of climate predictions, but in some sectors the decision making processes that would benefit from decadal predictions, understood as a mature climate prediction tool, are better defined. This is valid provided the added value of predictions-projections is illustrated to the users. Agriculture Energy Water management Insurance Transport Forestry Fire management Health Fisheries Tourism High Low From project deliverables of EUCP (D 6.4), PRIMAVERA (D11.6) and EUPORIAS (D12.3). Additional sectoral comments in user engagement by S2S4E, APPLICATE, MED-GOLD, HIATUS and VISCA.

Near-term projections Seasonal-mean air temperature change for the RCP4.5 scenario over 2016-2035 (wrt 1986-2005). Stippling for significant changes, hatching for non-significant. Can the users get anything better? Can the users get additional time granularity? IPCC AR5 WGI (2013)

Climate time scales Progression from initial-value problems with weather forecasting at one end and multi-decadal to century projections as a forced boundary condition problem at the other, with climate prediction (sub-seasonal, seasonal and decadal) in the middle. Prediction involves initialization and systematic comparison with a simultaneous reference. The big challenge is to provide climate information for the next 30 years from the best climate data sources Initial-value driven Boundary-condition driven Time Weather forecasts Subseasonal to seasonal forecasts (2 weeks-18 months) Decadal forecasts (18 months-30 years) Climate-change projections Adapted from Meehl et al. (2009)

Applications: Energy

Applications: Agriculture Multi-model correlation between the predicted ensemble mean and reference (from GHCN and GPCC) standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index of the previous six months (SPEI6) for the boreal summer averaged over forecast years 2 to 5. INIT INIT - NoINIT INIT: Initialized decadal prediction NoINIT: Non initialized climate projection Jul Aug Sep C3S Climate Projections Workshop: Near-term predictions and projections, 21 April 2015 Solaraju Murali (BSC)

Real-time decadal climate prediction The multi-model real-time decadal prediction exchange is a research exercise that guarantees equal ownership to the contributors. BSC is one of the four centres recognised as global producers of decadal climate predictions by WMO-CCl.

Lots yet to explore A non-exhaustive list of aspects to be explored in climate prediction: Definition of benchmarks from the user perspective (not just climatology, persistence or projections). Standards and quality assurance. Entry-level documentation. Integration of the observational uncertainty in the production chain. Model weighting, model selection and prediction-projection merging. Use of new paradigms like storylines and use of emergent constrains.