TFMM – Trends Emissions of air pollutants for

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Presentation transcript:

TFMM – Trends Emissions of air pollutants for 1990-2010 Augustin Colette [augustin.colette@ineris.fr] Elsa Real, Bertrand Bessagnet Institut National de L’Environnement Industriel et des Risques

Emissions of air pollutants for 1990-2010 Overview of available sources of information Will ultimately be used for the modelling Criteria for selection Completeness 1990-2010 Available by activity sector, spatially gridded Key pollutants: NOx, NMVOC, SOx, NH3, PM or BC&OC

Emissions of air pollutants for 1990-2010 Regional datasets preferred to global inventories (EMEP or GAINS preferred to EDGAR, ACCMIP…) EMEP emissions used in modelling lacks PM before 1999 GAINS has been revised in 2014 for 1990-2010 (ECLIPSE-V5) Provided by Zig Klimont & Chris Heyes => ECLIPSE-V5 is a good candidate Need to benchmark wrt other sources to assess uncertainties Also an issue since other sources are used in global models (used for Boun. Cond.)

Emission details EDGAR / ACCMIP / MACCCity EMEP: ECLIPSE-V5 Primarily designed for chemistry-climate MACCCity: monthly, ACCMIP before 2000, RCP85 after EMEP: « as used in models » ECLIPSE-V5 GAINS national totals (updated after TSAP2013) provided for all RCP sectors (energy, industry, solvent use, transport, agriculture, open burning of agricultural waste, residential combustion, and waste treatment) Spatially at 0.5 resolution based on RCP-consistent proxies.

1965-2008 EDGAR v4.2

Available species

Quantitative Comparisons over Europe Domain used for comparison : Longitude: min= -15; max= +35 Latidude: min=37.5; max=65

EMEP/ECLIPSE quite different for recent years PM25 EMEP/ECLIPSE quite different for recent years

PM25: by sector EMEP/ECLIPSE difference moslty due to Residential, Industry, Agriculture

Despite differences in totals, trends by sector are broadly similar PM25: trends by sector Despite differences in totals, trends by sector are broadly similar

NOx GAINS Granier CC, 2011 ECLIPSE still higher than other sources but not as much as in Granier et al. 2011

NOx: transport The overestimation in ECLIPSE is due to land transport, the difference is constant over 20yrs

ECLIPSE > EMEP > MACCCity NOx: Energy Decreasing trend: ECLIPSE > EMEP > MACCCity

All the sources are quite consistent (except EDGAR)

SO2: by sector Slight discrepancies at sectoral level: Might have an impact on spatialisation

NMVOC Large uncertainties, especially for EDGAR The discrepancy EMEP/ECLIPSE in the 1990s is a concern

Discrepancy EMEP/ECLIPSE due to « other transports » NMVOC: by sector Discrepancy EMEP/ECLIPSE due to « other transports »

NH3 ECLIPSE & EMEP quite consistent MACCCity & GEA: less focus on NH3

Conclusions & Questions for Discussion On the paper, ECLIPSE-V5 is a good source for AQ hindcast over Europe Benchmarking with other sources show: PM: not much comparison possible NOx slighlty high compared to other sources, but constant in time SO2 very consistent VOC: large spread NH3: good consistency EMEP/ECLIPSE

Open issues Are there gaps at national level that do not appear on these Europe-wide comparisons? Esp. for PM: not reported before 1999 How to deal with NO/NO2 changes ? To be discussed by Bertrand tomorrow: Using Country-totals ? Spatial distribution: ECLIPSE or in-house ? Temporal profiles ?

PM25 gap filling in EEA dataviewer “Linear extrapolation was performed if one or several years at the beginning or at the end of a time series were missing, and if at least 5 consecutive years showing a clear trend (r2 ≥ 0.6) were available. Extrapolation 'backwards' was never allowed to result in negative values. “ extract from the EEA Technical report No 12/2014 ( European Union emission inventory report 1990–2012 under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP)