Scenario Framework for the Gas Network Development Plan 2020-2030 Market area merger Holger Sippel, GASCADE

Agenda Introduction New capacity model ("NewCap") Market-based instruments NewCap integration into network development plans

Introduction Amendment of sec Introduction Amendment of sec. 21 of the Gas Network Access Ordinance (GasNZV) Core task: Merger of the NCG and GASPOOL market areas VTP access will be upgraded Deadline: 1 April 2022 TSOs: To be implemented by 1 October 2021 Goal: Increase gas market liquidity TSOs: Keep capacity levels & quality unchanged from Gas NDP 2018-2028, if possible Investment measures or use of other instruments, taking account of ‘safety’ and ‘cost-effectiveness’ as two key criteria -

New capacity model ("NewCap") in a nutshell

New capacity model ("NewCap") Scenarios Redistribution options Transit options

New capacity model ("NewCap") Redistribution example – Reduction of imports from western Europe (LNG) compensated by higher imports from Russia

Market-based instruments Example: Wheeling

Market-based instruments Example: Third-party network use

Market-based instruments Example: Exchange-based spread product

"NewCap" + network planning Integration into the modelling via… 2. Adjustment of TSOs’ own networks  expansion costs 1. Input variables 4. Overall optimisation of expansion vs. MBI - 3. Recalculation with the TSO-specific capacities  MBI costs

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