LAMAS Working Group 13-14 June 2018 Agenda Item 2.3 Breaks in monthly time series Boyan.Genev@ec.europa.eu

OUTLINE I. Background II. Typology of MUR methodologies III. Stock Taking Exercise IV. Conclusions

I. BACKGROUND MUR series' characteristics Main issues at stake Principal European Economic Indicator High visibility Various methods in use Main issues at stake DSS called for a joint release strategy Interdependencies with breaks in quarterly data Uncertainty on the size of the break

II. Typology of MUR methodologies Estimates from LFS sample Pure monthly extractions for 10 MS – break in reference month January 2021 3 months moving averages – break in reference month February 2021 Hybrid methods Quarterly figures essential (Main Indicators) Old concept until LFS-Q1 is available i.e. as of reference month April 2021

III. Stock Taking Exercise (1) Estimates from LFS sample When will MUR data become available in the new concept? When will they become available, break-free? Hybrid methods When will quarterly LFS data (used as a benchmark) become available in the new concept? Exchange of Views: availability of data clarified by HR, MT, LT, SE, IS and NO.

III. Stock Taking Exercise (2) Number of countries not able to provide any data / out of 30 8 MS until (ref. month) January 2021 6 MS until February 2021 5 MS until March 2021 2 MS until April 2021 0 MS until May 2021 Availability of break-free series 11 MS from (ref. month) May 2021 14 MS from September 2021 All MSs from January 2022

IV. Conclusions LAMAS delegates are invited: To confirm or correct the information provided as regards From which reference month MUR data will become available in the new concept (even with breaks) When they will become available break-free For countries having not transmitted this information to Eurostat (DE, IE, LV, FI and the UK) to commit doing so by the end of September 2018