The Changing Nature of Technology- Based Industry in Washington State: Perspectives from 7 Technology Alliance Sponsored Studies William B. Beyers Department of Geography University of Washington Seattle, WA Seattle Economists Club June 13, 2012

Outline Defining Technology-Based Industry The Changing Nature of R&D – WA vs. Other States Current Employment Trends in Employment The Changing Geography of Tech-Based Industry Changes in Economic Impacts

The Technology Alliance Technology- Based Industry Economic Impact Studies Studies have been benchmarked against the years 2005, 2007, 2000, 2003, 2007, 2009, and 2011 They have tried to use a consistent methodology Changes in underlying data sources have made this difficult We are unaware of any similar legacy of studies of this type

Defining Technology-Based Industry Many definitions of high tech Some are based on % of sales related to R&D, some based on arbitrary definitions of industries included, some based on % of R&D related occupations Early Technology Alliance economic impact studies defined technology-based industries as those with at least 10% of their workforce in R&D related occupations Starting in 2008, we defined tech-based industry as those with double the state average in R&D employment for all industries. In the current study, that threshold is 16.2% (up from 15.6 in 2010). This definition leads to some changes in industries included in the study, but other factors also lead to changes to industry inclusion (shift to NAICS, occupational structural change) After careful inspection of occupational structure, we included two industries with less than 16.2% R&D related occupations (electronic shopping & waste treatment/disposal)

R&D Related Jobs are very important in technology-based industry Source: Calculated From Washington State Employment Security Department 2010 industry-x-occupation matrix

Technology-Based Industries in 2011 Study

Examples of R&D Intensive Occupations in SOC 15, 17, and 19

Washington R&D by Users of Funds Source: NSF 2012 D – data not disclosed NA – data not available for this year Indexed ranks are against Gross State Product, which controls size of state economies

1995 Study Employment Mix

1997 Study Employment Mix

2000 Study Employment Mix

Employment Mix 2003 – After the shift from SIC to NAICS

Employment Mix 2007

Employment Mix 2009

Employment Mix Manufacturing 28% Services 72% Total 434,343 Data for 2011 Includes Self-Employed for the first time

Changing Mix of Technology-Based Industry Employment

History of Technology-Based Employment in Washington State

Boeing Employment Fluctuations

Boeings Long-Run Trend towards Outsourcing Regional Purchases are about 7% of total, mostly services Source: Washington State Input-Output Tables

Concentration of Technology-Based Employment in Washington State Nonemployer = 9.4% of County Business Patterns Employment

Location Quotients

Washington Ranks 2 nd. - Peer States Black/White Numbers Other High Location Quotients - Red Location Quotients – All Hi Tech 2009

1993 Location Quotients – Less Aerospace

Washington Ranks 3 rd - Peer States Black/White Numbers Other High Location Quotients - Red Location Quotients – Less Aerospace

1993 Location Quotients- Tech Intensive

Washington Ranks 3 rd - Peer States Black/White Numbers Other High Location Quotients – Red 1.27 Location Quotients – Tech-Intensive

Location Quotient Trend – Washington State

Washington County Employment 1997

233,475 52,918 15,048 18,739 11,929 Direct County Tech-Based Employment , ,475 15,048 18,739 11,929

Economic Impact Analysis

Employment Impacts 1997

434,343 1,007,378 1,441,721 Hi Tech Trade Services Direct Mfg. Other Industries Indirect Total Direct and Indirect Employment Impacts Report: 381, ,644 1,208,189

Direct & Total Impacts B&O tax only B&O and Sales Tax

Multiplier History

Historic Trend in Technology-Based Industry Employment and Impacts

Concluding Comments Washington has strong technology-based industry, but it has changed over time The occupational foundation for defining technology-based industry continues to rise Our R&D position relative to other states has also risen Service industry components of technology-based industry have continued to expand While these industries are strongly concentrated in the Puget Sound region, there has been geographical spread to other parts of the state Growth of technology-based industry has been faster than the state average, leading to growth in economic impacts that have also gradually risen. Thanks to the Technology Alliance for supporting this unique set of portraits of technology-based industry in Washington State