Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. This figure, figure SPM.10 from IPCC 2013, is reproduced with permission. Model results for the historical period (1860 – 2010) are compared with results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon-cycle forward models for a range of scenarios, termed Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) up to 2100. Each RCP shown (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) is the result of a multi-model climate-carbon cycle model, with decadal means shown as dots. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines. Model results over the historical period (1860 – 2010) are indicated in black. The coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of available models in RCP8.5. The thin black line and grey area are a multi-model mean and range for models forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year (1% per year CO2 simulations). For a specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, the 1% per year CO2 simulations exhibit lower warming than those driven by RCPs, which include additional non-CO2 forcings. Temperature values are given relative to the 1861 – 1880 base period, while emissions are relative to 1870. Philip S. Ringrose Petroleum Geoscience 2017;23:287-297 © 2017 The Author(s)‏