Landscape Aggregation H=0 H=1 H=2 H=3 H=4 H=5
Landscape Creation RULE (Gardner) 512 x 512 cells Binary (host / non-host) landscapes Variability in two parameters Proportion of landscape as host Fractal dimension
Populating the Landscapes All trees placed on the landscape in year 0 are 10 years old Host Trees Table Mountain Pine: (Pinus pungens) Pitch pine: (Pinus rigida) Non-host species 11 species Randomly placed in non-host cells
Experimental Design Factors Replications Proportion of landscape in pine Levels: 25 % & 40 % Fractal dimension of landscape Levels: 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5 Dispersal model Levels: Distance limited, Ubiquitous Replications 50 Replicate landscapes
LANDIS runs No fire BDA active to simulate SPB outbreaks 150 year runs
Analysis Questions How does the proportion of pine on the landscape change over time? How does the proportion of pine on the landscape over time vary with initial values of h & p? Is the proportion of pine on the landscape over time related to the dispersal model? How well does the clumpiness metric represent differences among the values of h? When do outbreaks occur? Why are there more level 3 outbreaks at high initial h values? How does the area of particular classes vary with clumpiness? How does clumpiness change over time at different initial h & p values? How does the size and severity of outbreaks change over time? How are the size and severity of outbreaks influenced by landscape structure How does landscape structure change over time? How does landscape structure affect the proportion of pines on the landscape over time?
How does the proportion of pine on the landscape change over time?
How does the proportion of pine on the landscape over time vary with the initial values of h & p?
How well does the clumpiness metric represent differences among the values of h?
When do outbreaks occur?
When do outbreaks occur and how large are they?
Outbreak Area vs. Clumpiness Class 0 Class 1 Class 2 Class 3
Old.pines > 0.95 T F Intense Outbreaks Blue Purple Green Orange