NATURAL GAS IN A LOW-CARBON ENERGY WORLD

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Presentation transcript:

NATURAL GAS IN A LOW-CARBON ENERGY WORLD

WHAT ROLE WILL NATURAL GAS PLAY IN A LOW-CARBON FUTURE?

EVOLUTION OF U.S. ENERGY USE US Energy Consumption (1800-2015) in quadrillion BTUs 120 100 80 60 40 20 NATURAL GAS AND RENEWABLES ? AGE OF OIL TOTAL ENERGY AGE OF COAL PETROLEUM NATURAL GAS AGE OF WOOD COAL RENEWABLES WOOD 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1860 1840 1820 1800 2020 2040 2100 Source: US Energy Information Administration

THE ENERGY PYRAMID OPTIMUM ENERGY SOURCE RELIABILITY AFFORDABILITY LOW-CARBON

THE LOW-CARBON ECONOMY 1140 GTCO2 FROM 2016 – 2100 IEA 450 SCENARIO Coal Oil Gas 5000 4000 1000 2015 2040 2100 2000 3000 Budgeted Fossil Fuel Demand toward 2100 (MTOE) Compliance with CO2 Budget (GtCO2) 2016 – 2040 2040 – 2100 725 415 1140 15 10 5 2016 2040 2100 CO2 Emissions Budgeted by Fossil Fuel (Gt CO2) Coal Oil Gas Source: IPCC; IEA WEO 2015, Rystad Energy research and analysis

THE NATURAL GAS ADVANTAGE Natural gas generates 250% more electricity than coal within the same carbon budget Stationary Combustion Factor (kg CO2/kWh) Power Generation Conversion (% Efficiency) Electricity Emission Factor (kg CO2/kWh-el) X = 353 35% 1008 245 40% 613 192 48% 400 318 27% 677 236 20% 502 181 34% 297 388 47% 1435 254 1271 203 61% 598 OIL COAL NATURAL GAS Average Low High Source: EIA 2015 (Emission factors for greenhouse gas inventories), Ecofys 2014 (International comparison of fossil power efficiency and CO2 intensity), Rystad Energy team research and analysis

THE TRANSITION DISCONNECTS Avoiding The Pitfalls/Recognizing The Opportunities Demand Projections Outdated Business Models Assessing Climate-Change Risks Myopic Decarbonization Policies

THE FUTURE OF NATURAL GAS Identify and pursue “use-driven” policies and new technologies that will allow natural gas to thrive in a low- carbon energy future.

USE-DRIVEN POLICIES “The Bridge” Downstream Economic Development Opportunities Power Industry Opportunities Energy Efficiency and Low-Carbon Incentives

NEW TECHNOLOGIES “Beyond the Bridge” New Products Graphene Production Methane to Ethylene & Liquids New Processes Solid Oxide Fuel Cells New Advances in Energy Conversion