Conference on Quality in International Statistics Maurine A Haver Haver Analytics 29 May 2012

High Quality & Timely Data for Global Strategy & Research Haver Analytics High Quality & Timely Data for Global Strategy & Research Financial Institutions & Money Managers Central Banks & Other Government Entities Corporates Consulting & Nonprofit Research

What does “quality” mean? View of a producer may be very different from that of a user Users are making decisions or helping others do so A perfect number in isolation is useless for this purpose

Number of Households Total Number of Households Millions 115 115 110 110 105 105 100 100 Census improvement in methodology 95 95 95 00 05 10 Source: Census Bureau Number of Households Total Number of Households Millions Number of Households.EMF (USECON) POPHM 9204-11203

Number of Households with adjustment Total Number of Households Millions 120 120 105 105 90 90 Haver Break-Adjusted Series 75 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics Number of Households with adjustment Total Number of Households - Millions Number of Households with adjustment.EMF (USECON) POPHM / POPHMJ 7804-11203

Recommendation Producers should consider restatement of data even when it cannot be done perfectly Access to underlying micro data should lead to the best estimates Values can be flagged as not meeting statistical standards

What do users want? Comparability Timeliness History Transparency

What do users want? Data Comparability Often do not investigate differences Ignore differences even when informed Greatly appreciate comparability of statistics for Euro Area & EU

Efforts toward comparability of data should have high priority Recommendation Efforts toward comparability of data should have high priority Differences in methodology across countries would not lead to flawed analysis True differences would become more readily apparent

Not necessary to give up tables presented in familiar formats US National Accounts now presented in an “ international style” as well Bank of Italy presents balance sheets according to their original format and the format adopted by the Eurosystem

What do users want? Timeliness Decisions are made using the figures available at the time. While users do not want large revisions, most welcome a number that may be revised if it means having it sooner

What do users want? History Models need history. Users will create it when it isn’t provided using whatever tools and information are at their disposal. Producers with the micro data are better suited to making these estimates.

What do users want? Transparency Complete meta data and details on methodology Revisions should include full information on changes in methodology Method and options selected for seasonal adjustment

What do vendors want? Stability in web sites and database access Documentation when changes are coming and at least a month of parallel systems New table layout in advance of release Data values, not just growth rates Should be able to calculate reported growth rates from underlying source data

Final thoughts If producers don’t release data, users are going to make it up. Users and producers need to work together to define the core set of statistics needed to understand the world economy Collaboration among producers to build a set of comparable statistics is critical