Fossil fuels: abundance, risk management, and exports from the Pacific NW CCE seminar series Dr. John Perona, series coordinator This presentation available at: www.pdxClimateEd.com

Tonight’s seminar Fossil fuel resources NW fossil fuel export terminals Fossil fuel risk bonds Speakers: Nick Caleb, LL.M., Center for Sustainable Economy Dr. John Talberth, Center for Sustainable Economy

Upcoming seminars Towards the renewable energy economy March 22, April 26, May 23 Towards the renewable energy economy -pathways for lowering emissions -law and policy solutions Carbon pricing cap & trade vs carbon tax Climate change and social justice

FOSSIL FUELS Methane – “natural gas” – CH4 “C” to “H” ratio is low  less CO2 “cleanest” fossil fuel GAS OIL Octane – typical in petroleum Intermediate “C” to “H” ratio COAL Typical hydrocarbon in coal Highest “C” to “H” ratio Produces most CO2 COAL – PRODUCES TWICE AS MUCH CO2 AS GAS

United States energy consumption (EIA) Still at nearly 80% fossil fuel

U.S. AND WORLD COAL SUPPLY 2005 estimate: World coal reserves to last ~200 years at then-current extraction

Coal Generating Units in 2008 1256 units, 356.7 GW capacity We identified 1,256 coal generating units operating in 2008. These units represented 356.7 GW of generating capacity. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2016

Coal Generating Units in 2016 804 units left, 284.1 GW capacity By the end of 2016, 452 units (59.3 GW) had retired, and 98 units (13.4 GW) had converted to another fuel, mostly natural gas, leaving 284.1 GW of coal capacity. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2016

Looking Ahead… Near future for coal 163 more units retiring/converting (18%) Many more units uneconomic (21%) Looking out into the future, we identified 128 units (38.1 GW) that are already slated for retirement, in addition to 35 units (12.8 GW) that are slated for either retirement or conversion to another fuel (again, mostly natural gas). That represents 51 GW of coal generating capacity, or 18% of the capacity remaining in 2016. The green dots show the units that failed our economic stress test (which we’ll get to in a moment) indicating that these units are currently more expensive to run than an equivalent existing natural gas plant. (Note that 84 units, or 4.2 GW, were excluded from the stress test and are not shown here.) Union of Concerned Scientists, 2016

Wind and solar energy are already cheapest Levelized cost – compares all costs over entire lifetime of a facility: includes construction and operation

Peak Oil predictions – about 10 years ago “Hubbert’s peak” – geologist M. King Hubbert, in 1950’s, correctly predicted a US oil production peak in 1970 Resource – estimated natural occurrence Reserve – subset of resource available for current exploitation

Fracking revolution in the US (2008 - ?) Natural gas “tight” oil

Fracking process

1. 3. 2. LNG- Liquefied natural gas Methane is drilled, refined, liquefied at a remote site The LNG is loaded on double-hulled refrigerated tankers and shipped The LNG is expanded offshore or onshore, and piped to interface with a local gas network 1. 3. 2.

The Hydrocarbon Age So, in conclusion, I would just like to say that I know that the data points in the oil statistics are weak. But I think that it is better to have a sound-working hypothesis based on available knowledge, than to rely on blind faith alone. Peak oil will be a turning point for mankind. However, the roof does not fall in after peak. What changes are perceptions, as people come to realize that the easy growth of the past becomes the challenge of offsetting the decline of the future. To this end, education of the public, governments and private business sectors as to the realities of global oil supplies will be key to developing a mandate to act on solutions. Let us use our current high oil supply intelligently while it lasts to ease the transition.