Post Brexit: Utopia or Apocalypse Post Brexit: Utopia or Apocalypse? Sarah Kirkpatrick, SFC and Andy Witty, Colleges Scotland

Four key impacts Business Readiness Erasmus EU Funding Skills – will be the focus of this presentation

Colleges as businesses Summary of SFC/Colleges Scotland work with colleges: Development of Brexit checklist Awareness of staffing, supply chain, legislative, regulatory impacts Quantify direct and indirect EU income Factor into financial planning

Total Funding Approvals (2014-18) College Total Funding Approvals (2014-18) €000’s Borders College 451 City of Glasgow College 703 Glasgow Clyde College 179 Glasgow Kelvin College 380 New College Lanarkshire 4,620 North Highland College 61 West College Scotland 511 West Lothian College 767 Dundee and Angus College 976 Inverness College UHI 75 Moray College UHI 70 Perth College UHI 51 South Lanarkshire College 124 SRUC 195 West of Scotland Colleges' Partnership 240 9,402 Erasmus+ Significant Erasmus+ activity in colleges. Most colleges have bid to enhance their Erasmus+ activities in the next cycle. NCL data is so far ahead of the rest of the sector that a graph is not visually helpful.

The future of Erasmus+ participation Programme Country status = UK can access Erasmus+ If UK is reclassified as a partner country = no precedent to participate in Erasmus+ activity beyond “certain HE activity” UK Government is also considering Domestic replacement – will this limit student exchange experience to UK only? Will colleges be able to access? Consultation is ongoing.

EU Funding – European Social Fund Current allocations are protected to the end of 2023: if there is a managed transition covered by UK Gov underwrite in event of no deal Next stage is development of Shared Prosperity Fund policy. Progress has been slow, but colleges should be ready to participate in planning and consultation on this.

Background Stats EU Student population College (FE)* College (HE)* University (UG) 2017-18 15,393 3,202 14,060 (3,915 entrants) 2016-17 13,681 3,213 14,040 (4,455 entrants) 2015-16 13,577 2,899 13,555 (3,945 entrants) * Approximately 98% of all college enrolments have a Scottish postcode upon application.

Scottish Government’s EU student fee policy 2019-20 and 2020-21 – EU students fully fundable 2021-22 – Scenario 1: Brexit is delayed or doesn’t happen or we are in extended transition phase EU students continue to be fully fundable Scenario 2: A ‘no deal’ Brexit or Brexit with a short transition phase EU nationals with settled status = fully fundable New EU students likely to be treated as international students (will pay full fee, subject to immigration controls) May be exception for students from RoI Overall, EU student numbers are likely to reduce

Meeting Scotland’s skills needs: SFC approach Meet employer/skills need Meet student demands Whole system responds appropriately and is joined up Institutional stability Learner Journey - Skills review - Access agenda - Demographics

Scotland’s Current Workforce

Scotland’s Workforce Source : SDS

Sectoral / LA Hotspots Sectors * Source : SDS Food & Drink Machinery & Equipment Chemical & Pharma Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Information & Communication Professional Services Wholesale & Retail Aberdeenshire Scottish Borders West Lothian City of Edinburgh South Lanarkshire Aberdeen City Eilan Siar Highland Dumfries & Galloway Perth & Kinross Falkirk Midlothian Shetland Islands Argyll & Bute Orkney Islands North Lanarkshire Angus Moray Renfrewshire North Ayrshire Accommodation & Food Services Transport and Storage Financial & Insurance Construction Sectoral / LA Hotspots Education Fife Inverclyde South Ayrshire W Dunbartonshire East Lothian E Dunbartonshire Stirling Glasgow City East Renfrewshire Dundee City East Ayrshire Clackmannanshire Source : SDS

Existing Challenges for Colleges Diminishing demographic 16-24 Demand moves from FE to HE More school-age pupils completing S5/6 Aged 24+ educated to higher level City draw from shire regions COWA targets Alternative post-16 pathways Direct recruitment of school leavers Expansion of FA, MA and GAs Big tech ‘education arms’ – focussed course content / online delivery platforms Reminder slide

Scotland’s Skills Challenges Demographic: ageing population and birth rates Not enough inward migration of young people Competition from emerging economies Lifestyle choices – part-time working Technology Robotics, big data, artificial intelligence, virtual reality Impacts all sectors Need to upskill/retrain Career changes

Brexit exacerbates Diminishing 16-24 demographic exacerbated with loss of new EU students Future restrictions on immigration to UK Direct loss of existing EU students & staff - likely to be small but will have impact University response = threat to HE in colleges? STEM, languages and business are key curricular areas Also critical subjects: Teaching/ Medicine/Healthcare/Food Production North East and central belt feel impact more FA,MA,GAs rely on ESF funding Recession?

What can colleges do? Adapt quickly to: Understand their demographics & impact of university policies Connect with employers Understand national/regional skills needs Develop activity to support economic stability and skills gaps Replace lost EU workforce Target re-skilling market Maintain curriculum relevance

How should colleges be supported in this? Engagement with SFC on demographics Further regional analysis from SDS and SFC Skills team e.g. Skills Alignment model Outcome Agreement process Flexible funding system which supports development of new routes (eg in work training) Employer linkages

Colleges Scotland Response Brexit Readiness and Checklist Retain staff and students Secure funding (direct and indirect) Cultural exchange programmes Flexibility Networks Colleges have a strong track record in engaging with the less advantaged. The most disadvantaged groups are in fact more likely to participate in FE than other groups so it seems clear that disadvantaged groups are reached by the college sector. Therefore it at least has the potential to improve social mobility. Literature identifies many of the non-economic benefits associated with education and training including improvements in health and wellbeing outcomes; social capital and cohesion; intergenerational transmission of skills and social mobility; the subsequent acquisition of further learning and qualifications; improved communication and autonomy, and reduced interactions with the criminal justice system.

Colleges Scotland Response Brexit Readiness and Checklist Retain staff and students Secure funding (direct and indirect) Cultural exchange programmes Flexibility Networks Colleges have a strong track record in engaging with the less advantaged. The most disadvantaged groups are in fact more likely to participate in FE than other groups so it seems clear that disadvantaged groups are reached by the college sector. Therefore it at least has the potential to improve social mobility. Literature identifies many of the non-economic benefits associated with education and training including improvements in health and wellbeing outcomes; social capital and cohesion; intergenerational transmission of skills and social mobility; the subsequent acquisition of further learning and qualifications; improved communication and autonomy, and reduced interactions with the criminal justice system.

Sarah Kirkpatrick - Assistant Director of EU Exit - SFC 0131 313 6696 - skirkaptrick@sfc.ac.uk Andy Witty - Director of Sector Policy- Colleges Scotland 01786 892058 - andy.witty@collegesscotland.ac.uk