Increased Mortality at Low-Volume Orthotopic Heart Transplantation Centers: Should Current Standards Change?  Eric S. Weiss, MD, Robert A. Meguid, MD,

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Increased Mortality at Low-Volume Orthotopic Heart Transplantation Centers: Should Current Standards Change?  Eric S. Weiss, MD, Robert A. Meguid, MD, MPH, Nishant D. Patel, BA, Stuart D. Russell, MD, Ashish S. Shah, MD, William A. Baumgartner, MD, John V. Conte, MD  The Annals of Thoracic Surgery  Volume 86, Issue 4, Pages 1250-1260 (October 2008) DOI: 10.1016/j.athoracsur.2008.06.071 Copyright © 2008 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 1 Distribution of center volumes for 143 centers included in the United Network for Organ Sharing dataset. Sixty-four centers fall below the requirement for Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services funding of 10 orthotopic heart transplantations per year (based on Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network data, January 2007). The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2008 86, 1250-1260DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2008.06.071) Copyright © 2008 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 2 Individual center unadjusted percent mortality as plotted by mean annual center orthotopic heart transplantation volume. Both (A) 30-day and (B) 1-year mortality censored for 30-day mortality are included. Data trend lines are provided, demonstrating the substantial effect that center volume has on 30-day mortality (based on Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network data, January 2007). The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2008 86, 1250-1260DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2008.06.071) Copyright © 2008 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 3 Kaplan-Meier estimates of 5-year survival for patients who underwent orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) at high-volume (black line) and low-volume (gray dashed line) centers. A survival table is provided, and the number of patients at risk is given in parentheses. The p value corresponds to Mantel-Cox log-rank test results (based on Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network data, January 2007). The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2008 86, 1250-1260DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2008.06.071) Copyright © 2008 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 4 Kaplan-Meier estimates of 5-year survival censored for patients who died before 1-year follow-up and stratified by mean center volume. A total of 10,347 patients survived beyond 1 year. The only group that varied significantly from others was those centers performing 5 or fewer OHTs per year. *p < 0.001 for this volume group when compared with the others using the Mantel-Cox log-rank test (based on Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network data, January 2007). The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2008 86, 1250-1260DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2008.06.071) Copyright © 2008 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 5 Various models of goodness of fit: area under the receiver operating curve (AUC [black]) and McFadden's pseudo R2 as a percentage (gray) of the sequential multiple logistic regression analyses performed at sequential volume cutoffs. Black and gray arrows point to goodness of fit for comparison between centers performing 10 or more cases per year versus fewer than 10 cases per year. This plot demonstrates that the current Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services standard of 10 OHTs per year was not the optimal fit in this model. The dotted line represents the baseline AUC for the model with no volume variable, which was 0.6415. The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2008 86, 1250-1260DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2008.06.071) Copyright © 2008 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions