16th Int’l Loss Prevention Symposium June 16-19, 2019 Then, and now: Delft 1974 versus 2019, more than four decades and 16 Loss Prevention symposia further! Hans J. Pasman hjpasman@gmail.com

Front page of the Proceedings of the 1971 Loss Prevention Symposium organized by the Institution of Chemical Engineers (IChemE) at Newcastle upon Tyne

Epilogue by Mr. Ch. Buschmann Chairman 1974 Local Organizing Committee Club of Rome – Forester model 2nd and 3rd order damaging effects WASH-1400 The Reactor Safety Study Quantification of Risk? Initiation of Rijnmond COVO study Central world-wide data bank?

Comparison of list of topics or themes

Knowledge level has been growing Resilience? From hindsight to foresight Preventive thinking Legislation 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Attention to Human Failure/ Factors Safety in management focus Technical safety: improved materials and designs Safety Management System Culture Safety level 2020

Trend of decreasing injury and fatality Int’l Oil & Gas Producers 2000-14 Shell company 1960-1995 and sub-contractors

Loss Prevention Then, and Now Tremendous increase personal safety Shift of focus towards prevention Use of scientifically based methods Support by academia Educational courses bachelor level, Ph.D’s 1990s Competition and ‘downsizing’ Shift towards consultant and academic participation

The 1974 papers “Safety is a money spinner” Checklist Prof. Trevor Kletz’s Myths of the Chem. Ind. Vapor loud explosion research Gas and dust explosion: Dr. Bartknecht’s 1 m3 - vessel, KG and KSt values. Gas dispersion Emergency response (in ‘industrial conurbation’)

Hazardous properties of substances

Milestones: HAZOP - SMS - LOPA – STS 1975 – 1990 – 1995 – 2000 System approach: System is more than the sum of parts Safety is emergent Nancy G. Leveson, 2011. Engineering a safer world, systems thinking applied to safety, The MIT Press

Conclusion Evolution is from hindsight to foresight. But, “loss prevention” calls for risk prediction. There is an ‘Ocean’ of possibilities and uncertainty. Hazard scenario identification needs improvement. Digital P&ID + simulation + automation + thinking. Enables risk assessment in design, layout, planning. Digitization; Big Data & Analytics are on their way. Indicators: holistically: plant, people, procedures. Dynamic risk assessment operations. Resilience assessment and preparation.