New Mexico Dynamic Statewide Water Budget (DSWB) Ken Peterson, NM WRRI Jesse Roach, Tetra Tech Bruce Thomson, UNM Vince Tidwell, Sandia National Labs New Mexico Water Dialogue 21st Annual Statewide Meeting January 7, 2016 Hello my name is Ken Peterson from the New Mexico Water Resources Research Institute. I along with Jesse Roach, Bruce Thompson, Vince Tidwell as well as other researchers from NM Tech, UNM, and NMSU have been working on developing a new tool for water resource management within NM. I am here today to share that with you and give you an update on our progress.

What is the need for a new water resources planning tool? Synthesizes abundant and diverse water information from across the state into a single framework Provides a continuously updated resource Why is there a need for this new tool? There are lots of studies and models available detailing New Mexico's water resources. However, these reports eventually become outdated and it can be difficult and time consuming to synthesize all aspects of the water budget into a clear and meaningful picture from multiple studies and reports.

Total withdrawals within the administrative supply are well known ~3.8 Maf RETURN FLOW SURFACE WATER GROUNDWATER Total withdrawals within the administrative supply are well known. The OSE does a great job of monitoring the withdrawals and reporting on it every 5 years. However this is only part of the picture.

The total physical supply is not well known EVAPORATION 40-150*? PRECIPITATION 55-110*? INFLOW 2.4*? RECHARGE 0.5-2.0*? OUTFLOW 3.4*? Total Groundwater IN Storage 20,000? MAF TOTAL WITHDRAWALS ~3.8* RETURN FLOW SURFACE WATER GROUNDWATER *Fluxes in millions of acre-feet per year Needed is a comprehensive assessment of New Mexico’s water resources The aim is to compliment the water programs of OSE and other agencies while providing new information through research The total physical supply is not as well know and the physical supply of water represents a much larger portion of the overall water budget than just the human use portion of the system. The total administrative withdrawals do vary slightly from year to year depending, in part, on water availability, however, these withdrawals do not vary as drastically from year to year as many of the components of the physical water supply do.

Need for dynamic assessment of state’s water resources Inputs Precipitation is highly variable and greatly exceeds total water use Evapotranspiration (ET) consumes most of the precipitation in the state but model estimates are not yet accurate (High Quality) Another advantage of the DSWB is that it is dynamic. The physical water supply is very variable, and we want to capture and represent as much of that variability as we can. This graph shows Statewide precipitation volume from 1990 to 2010 from PRISM data as well as Evapotranspiration data from 2 satellite based ET models. The SW and GW withdrawals can also be seen. The take away from this is that precipitation is highly variable and greatly exceeds total water use, and that ET consumes most of the precipitation in the state, but modeled estimates are not yet accurate. Outputs Precipitation data courtesy of : PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, http://prism.oregonstate.edu, created 5 May 2014 Water use data courtesy of : 90, 95, 00- Brian C. Wilson (NM OSE), 05, 10 John Longworth et al (NM OSE) accessed from http://www.ose.state.nm.us/publications_technical_reports_wateruse.html accessed on 15 May 2014

Other western states’ water assessments to enhance water administration and planning Oregon: Point flow data converted to spatial and temporal flow data California: Water balances with regional water uses and supplies in common platform Utah: “Water Rights estimates of diversions per well helped split out annual USGS groundwater area pumping to Water Resources subareas” Other western States including but not limited to Oregon, Utah, and California currently have water assessment programs to further enhance water administration and planning. The DSWB is New Mexico’s answer to keep up to date with the planning being done in our neighboring states.

New Mexico Dynamic Statewide Water Budget The dynamic statewide water budget (DSWB) synthesizes water supply and demand information from across the state into a single tool to provide information on water sources and use at a variety of scales. The DSWB will support local, regional, and state water planning and management in order to improve stewardship of New Mexico’s limited water resources. So what exactly is the New Mexico Dynamic Statewide Water Budget and what does it do. The DSWB synthesizes water supply and demand information from across the state into a single tool to provide information on water sources and use at a variety of scales. The DSWB will support local, regional, and state water planning and management in order to improve stewardship of New Mexico’s limited water resources.

NM WRRI-led statewide collaboration of multiple institutions for DSWB research System Dynamics Statewide Water Budget Model Assessment of Recharge to Groundwater Remotely Sensed Evapotranspiration and Precipitation Assessment Groundwater Level and Storage Changes The model is only part of the Dynamic Statewide Water Budget effort. The model is what pulls all of the information and science into a single and accessible platform. However there are multiple agencies and universities participating in the Dynamic Statewide Water Budget effort to provide new and cutting edge water resources information. Some of the new information being developed includes statewide assessments of recharge to groundwater, groundwater levels and storage changes, remotely sensed/ modeled evapotranspiration and precipitation, and surface water flow statistics. Surface Water Flow Statistics Water Use Reporting

Systems dynamics modeling Systems dynamics is an approach to model complex systems over time using stocks, fluxes, internal feedbacks and time delays Stocks represent storages Fluxes represent movement into, out of, or between stocks and or external sources System dynamics is well suited for accounting- or budget-type models The DSWB model is built in a systems dynamics modeling platform. Systems dynamics is an approach to model complex systems over time using stocks, fluxes, internal feedbacks and time delays. The stocks represent storages, and the fluxes represent movement into, out of or between stocks and or external sources. Systems dynamics modeling is often used in accounting or budget type models, and is thus well suited for the work we are doing.

Human Storage and Distribution Systems DSWB - stocks for water mass balance Land Surface- Moisture stored in soil, plants, and other surface waters that cannot be diverted for human use. Surface Water- Water in rivers and lakes that can be diverted or impounded for human use. Human Storage and Distribution Systems- Water in manmade storage impoundments or distribution systems, such as reservoirs and irrigation canals. Groundwater- Water in aquifers that can be extracted by plants or people. Land Surface 1 Surface Water 2 Human Storage and Distribution Systems 3 There are 4 stocks DSWB model. Land surface and Surf water – total storage not estimated; Human storage estimated for major reservoirs; Groundwater storage is largely unknown except for selected aquifers Note that assuming no change in land surface storage is reasonable over long periods of time, but very limiting over sub-annual time periods. Groundwater 4

Human Storage and Distribution Systems Precipitation Monthly PRSIM data Runoff Calculated flows based on differences between stream gages Swin, Swout Measured surface flows Gwin,Gwout Presently unknown terms. Set to zero to allow for calculation of GW storage change ETGW Calculation based ET estimate for riparian vegetation Human use Modeled or estimated from data for all 9 OSE water use categories Recharge Model assumes a long term steady state GW system for all non-human terms: Recharge= 10 yr moving AVG (baseflow + ETgw + GWout – GWin) Landsurface ET- Closure term to balance the Land Surface stock 9. ETSW Physically based estimate of open water evaporation from rivers 10. SW to GW Net sum of baseflow and SW losses to GW DSWB - fluxes for water mass balance Precip 8 9 6 5 ETSW1 ETSW2 ETh ETGW 1 2 Recharge Land Surface Runoff SW In SW Out 3 Surface Water 3 SW to GW 6 SWd SWr 6 7 Human Storage and Distribution Systems And there are 10 fluxes that connect water movement between the stocks and or external sources. GWr GWd 6 10 6 Groundwater GWOut 4 GWIn 4

NEW MEXICO DSWB COMPONENT Primary data sources for the New Mexico DSWB NEW MEXICO DSWB COMPONENT PRIMARY DATA SOURCE Precipitation (within NM) PRISM Evapotranspiration (within NM) NM WRRI Surface water flow (into/out of NM) USGS Runoff (surface water originating in NM) Recharge (water moving from soil surface to groundwater) SW/GW interactions SW and GW withdrawals OSE SW and GW depletions Groundwater storage change Data used in the model comes from a variety of sources including the OSE, USGS, PRISM climate group from Oregon State Universtiy, NM WRRI, as well as the other universities and agencies developing new data sources to be used in this modeling effort.

DSWB spatial scales 7 Major River Basins (black Lines) 16 Water Planning Regions (colored areas) 33 Counties (thin grey lines) The DSWB provides mass balance calculations at a variety of spatial scales: 7 major river basins, 16 water planning regions 33 counties And a singular statewide calculation.

Currently the year one version of the NMDSWB is available to be downloaded and run from the nm wrri website. This version only contains the river basin and whole state estimates. This video here shows some of the capabilities of the year one model. Video

DSWB accomplishments Mass balance calculations for river basins and water planning regions Web-delivered downloadable model http://nmwrri.nmsu.edu/?page_id=3663 Stakeholder engagement meeting at annual WRRI water conference Technical completion report http://nmwrri.nmsu.edu/wp- content/SWWA/Reports/Roach/June%2 02015%20FINAL/Report.pdf In the year and a half the project has been going we have developed mass balance calculations for river basins and water planning regions. However, the downloadable model has not yet been updated to included information at the WPR scale. The year one model only includes information for the River basin scale. A stakeholder engagement meeting was held in October at the 60th annual WRRI water conference to better adress the needs of model users. And a Technical completion report has been compiled and is available on the website so that users can have access to complete documentation on the DSWB model.

DSWB future work Quantify and display uncertainty associated with the DSWB model inputs and outputs Collaboration between NM WRRI and ISC to make DSWB part of a living web-based state water plan Improve the model interface including a web-based version of the DSWB model Example with uncertainty quantified and displayed Develop future scenarios with user-based assumptions and manipulations Improve estimates of mass balance stocks and fluxes through WRRI-coordinated supporting research with NM Universities Source: Reclamation, 2012, Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study This is an on going project, with lots of worked planned for the future. For the remainder of this year we plan to complete mass balance calculations at the county level, quantify and display uncertainty associated with the modeled inputs and outputs. We are also collaborating with the ISC make the DSWB part of a living web-based state water plan. Future work also includes developing a completely web-based version of the model interface so that users can run the model directly from the web without having to download the model and free software player. Additionally we plan to develop future scenarios with user-based assumptions and manipulations to enhance the models planning capabilities. Lastly it will be in ongoing effort to improve the estimates of mass balance stocks and fluxes through WRRI-coordinated research.

THANK YOU Ken Peterson petersks@nmsu.edu