Technology Forecasting Dr. Seth Bates – Tech 198 Unit 5: Technology Transfer and Assessment

S-Curves and Technology Trajectories Consider an industry or firm and the products it makes. Plot and describe the relevant S curve(s) for your industry, from recent history to current trends. Is the industry likely to be subject to natural technological limits? Why or why not? Has it experienced discontinuities? Is it likely to do so soon?

The Technology Life Cycle

Life Cycles and S-Curve Forecasting

Disruption and Transition

Creating Value: Be ready for paradigm shifts Understand how customer needs will evolve Understand how technologies will evolve (Both your own and those on which you rely) Develop world class products and services that meet customer needs Be ready for paradigm shifts

Forecasting Can the future of technology be predicted? –Forecasting techniques Delphi models Forecasting by analogy Trend extrapolation (S curves) –The product/process transition –Technological exhaustion

Delphi Models Ask the experts! –A committee? –Structured questionnaires? Pros –Field experts are often years ahead of day to day practice: technologies do not come from no where Cons –They sometimes have little knowledge of possible applications –They can be enthusiastic (biased)

Forecasting by Analogy A considerable amount of guesswork… Is nanotechnology like semiconductors? Or like biotechnology Or like something else altogether?

Trend Extrapolation Do all good things come to an end? Progress as a result of the passage of time versus progress as the result of returns to effort Predicting progress in complementary technologies (variations on the straight razor)

Technological Exhaustion Performance is ultimately constrained by physical limits, for example: –Sailing ships & the power of the wind –Copper wire & transmission capability –Semiconductors & the speed of the electron