WECC 2019 Scenario Demand-Side Models July 11, 2019 WSTF Weekly Meeting Michael Bailey, P.E.

WECC Scenarios Matrix

WECC Scenarios Matrix

Customer Adoption Modeling How do we identify and model various degrees of Customer Adoption of Energy Service Options? This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY

Identify Customer End-Use

Modeling Customer End-Use EnergyPATHWAYS EnergyPATHWAYS (EP)—a bottom-up energy sector tool with stock-level accounting for all consuming, producing, delivering, and converting energy infrastructure—provides an analytic backbone to create electric technology adoption and power consumption scenarios. https://github.com/energyPATHWAYS/EnergyPATHWAYS. Demand-Side Grid Model (dsgrid) NREL's demand-side grid (dsgrid) model harnesses decades of sector-specific energy modeling expertise to understand current and future U.S. electricity load for power systems analyses.

Demand-Side Modeling Challenges Models are complex. Takes time to develop modeling data and expertise in using the tools. EnergyPATHWAYS is open-source, but underlying data is not. Dsgrid is not publicly available. Not enough time in the WECC 2019 Study Program to create demand-side scenario models from scratch.

Demand-Side Modeling Solution NREL has already done the bulk of the work for us in the creation of an ensemble of Demand-side Scenarios that we can use as a potential starting point for the WECC demand-side scenarios. These NREL demand-side scenarios were used in the Electrification Futures Study and the Energy-Water-Climate Change (EWCC) study.

NREL Demand-Side Scenarios

Growth in Demand has Slowed But a renaissance in new demand growth will likely emerge through future electrification.

NREL Electrification Futures Study (EFS)

Crucial Questions

Technology Cost and Performance

Foundational Technology

EFS Modeling

NREL Demand-Side Scenarios

Demand-Side Deep Dive

Historic Electrical Technology Adoption

Emergence of New Demand Growth

EP Method in Brief

Customer Adoption Scenarios

Tech Adoption x Tech Advancement

Transportation Sector

Transportation Sector Questions

Buildings Sector

Building Sector Questions

Industrial Sector

Industrial Sector Questions

Overall, Vehicle Electrification Dominate

Overall, Space Heating Shifts Demand

Electrification Doubles in High Scenario

Energy Savings

WECC Next Steps Normalize NREL Demand-Side Scenarios to ADS and 2038 horizon (and years in between). Finalize and post Generation and Transmission Capital Cost Updates. Develop Policy goal models. Develop Constraint models. Coordinate EWCC with Labs. Post starting point metric parameters for stakeholder review. Begin building study cases.

Stakeholder Next Steps Review NREL Demand-Side Scenario models and identify parameter adjustments. Correlate Scenario matrix with Demand-Side Scenario ensemble. Review Capital Expansion models and identify parameter adjustments. Identify Policy goals to capture.

Link References The following pages contain links to references and data associated with this presentation.

NREL Electrification Futures Study Through the Electrification Futures Study (EFS), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory is exploring the impacts of widespread electrification in all U.S. economic sectors. In this multi-year study, NREL and its research partners—Electric Power Research Institute, Evolved Energy Research, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Northern Arizona University, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory—are using multiple analytic tools and models to develop and assess electrification scenarios designed to quantify potential energy, economic, and environmental impacts to the U.S. power system and broader economy.

NREL Electrification Futures Study Electrification Futures Study (EFS) home page: https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/electrification- futures.html Electrification Futures Study Modeling Approach https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/electrification- futures-approach.html A

Demand-Side Scenarios Released June 2018, the second report in the EFS series aims to support an integrated understanding of how the potential for electrification might impact the demand side of the U.S. energy system. The report presents scenarios with various degrees of future electrification in all major end-use sectors of the U.S. energy system and quantifies impacts on the amount and shape of electricity demand. Technical Report: Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States (PDF) Informational Webinar: Recording and presentation slides (PDF) Industrial Sector Presentation: Electrification of Industry: Summary of EFS Industrial Sector Analysis (PDF) Data: Report figure data and scenario data

Foundational Technology Cost and Performance Data Released December 2017, the first report in the EFS series provides estimated cost and performance data for electric technologies considered in the study. The study applies a literature- and expert opinion-based approach in developing future projections of technology advancement to be used in the EFS scenario analysis. The data can also inform other researchers and analysts exploring electrification. Technical Report: Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050PDF Data: Report figure data and cost and performance data

Battery Storage NREL: The Potential for Battery Energy Storage to Provide Peaking Capacity in the United States Providing peaking capacity could be a significant U.S. market for energy storage. Of particular focus are batteries with 4-hour duration due to rules in several regions along with these batteries’ potential to achieve life-cycle cost parity with combustion turbines compared to longer- duration batteries. However, whether 4-hour energy storage can provide peak capacity depends largely on the shape of electricity demand—and under historical grid conditions, beyond about 28 GW nationally, the ability of 4-hour batteries to provide peak capacity begins to fall. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/74184.pdf

dsgrid: Demand-Side Grid Model NREL's demand-side grid (dsgrid) model harnesses decades of sector-specific energy modeling expertise to understand current and future U.S. electricity load for power systems analyses. https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dsgrid.html

EnergyPATHWAYS The energyPATHWAYS model is a professional, open-source energy and carbon planning tool for use in evaluating long-term, economy-wide greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios. EnergyPathways is released under the MIT License (MIT). See the LICENSE file for further details. https://github.com/energyPATHWAYS/EnergyPA THWAYS

Michael Bailey, P.E. Senior Staff Engineer mbailey@wecc.org