Anina M. Pescatore, MSc, Cristian M

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Presentation transcript:

A simple asthma prediction tool for preschool children with wheeze or cough Anina M. Pescatore, MSc, Cristian M. Dogaru, MD, PhD, Lutz Duembgen, PhD, MSc, Michael Silverman, MD, Erol A. Gaillard, MD, Ben D. Spycher, PhD, Claudia E. Kuehni, MD, MSc Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology Volume 133, Issue 1, Pages 111-118.e13 (January 2014) DOI: 10.1016/j.jaci.2013.06.002 Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology Terms and Conditions

Fig 1 Wheeze, cough, and health care visits in 1- to 3-year-old-children. The illustration shows a proportional Venn diagram for children aged 1 to 3 years, showing frequency of health care visits caused by wheeze or cough, current wheeze, and chronic cough (cough without colds or cough at night). The gray area represents our study population. Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology 2014 133, 111-118.e13DOI: (10.1016/j.jaci.2013.06.002) Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology Terms and Conditions

Fig 2 Calibration plot of the main model (assessed in leave-one-out cross-validation). Children are grouped into deciles of their predicted probability. The average predicted probability for later asthma among children within each decile is plotted against the actual observed frequency (prevalence) of asthma in that group. As a visual aid, a smoothing technique (locally weighted polynomial regression) was applied to these data. The straight line represents perfect calibration. Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology 2014 133, 111-118.e13DOI: (10.1016/j.jaci.2013.06.002) Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology Terms and Conditions

Fig 3 Asthma prediction tool. For any 1- to 3-year-old child seeking health care because of wheeze or cough, the applicable predictors are summed to a total score in the upper part of the figure. The estimated probability of having asthma 5 years later is given below for different total scores. Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology 2014 133, 111-118.e13DOI: (10.1016/j.jaci.2013.06.002) Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology Terms and Conditions

Fig 4 Receiver operating characteristic curves for the main asthma prediction model and the prediction tool. The dots represent the sensitivity and specificity for different cutoff values of the prediction tool. Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology 2014 133, 111-118.e13DOI: (10.1016/j.jaci.2013.06.002) Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology Terms and Conditions

Fig E1 Original questions used to define inclusion criteria at baseline. Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology 2014 133, 111-118.e13DOI: (10.1016/j.jaci.2013.06.002) Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology Terms and Conditions

Fig E2 Original questions used to assess outcome at follow-up. Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology 2014 133, 111-118.e13DOI: (10.1016/j.jaci.2013.06.002) Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology Terms and Conditions

Fig E3 Original questions used as potential predictive factors. Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology 2014 133, 111-118.e13DOI: (10.1016/j.jaci.2013.06.002) Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology Terms and Conditions