Sugar tax efficacy – a global perspective Geoff Parker Executive Director – International Council of Beverages Associations Asia Pacific Group Chief Executive Officer – Australian Beverages Council

POPULAR EFFECTIVE PRO TAX PROGRESSIVE

7x US CITIES POPULAR POPULAR? 40+ COUNTRIES WHO/NGOs WHO Good Buy/ECHO Finland 1940s Norway 1980s Mexico 2014 UK 6 April Malaysia 1 July 40+ COUNTRIES Berkeley CA Philadelphia PA Boulder CO San Francisco CA 7x US CITIES POPULAR POPULAR? WHO Good Buy/ECHO NGOs Academia WHO/NGOs

PHILLY EFFECTIVE EFFECTIVE? MEXICO BERKELEY Colchero et al 5% in 2014 Silver et al Taxed bevs consumption down Untaxed H2O up BERKELEY EFFECTIVE? Tax $ earmarked for for PreK programs Beverage sales down 24% in grocery stores PHILLY

WIN3 PROGRESSIVE PROGRESSIVE? REDUCE INTAKE RAISE REVENUE WBG suggests taxes deliver win-win-win outcome WIN3 PROGRESSIVE Price increase means people drink less means people consume less kcal means people lose weight means population health improves REDUCE INTAKE PROGRESSIVE? In 2016 UK Treasury projected £500M pa RAISE REVENUE

REGRESSIVE & UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES UNPOPULAR INEFFECTIVE ANTI TAX REGRESSIVE & UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

3K US CITIES UNPOPULAR UNPOPULAR UN+WHO 150+ COUNTRIES 80% countries have no tax Adoption rate slowing… AUS, NZ, SIN, CAN.. 150+ COUNTRIES 3,000 US cities don’t have a tax Cook Country repealed States banning tax 3K US CITIES UNPOPULAR UNPOPULAR Multiple times SSB tax considered and rejected Clear shift away tax references Academia? UN+WHO

UNPOPULAR UN+WHO CONSIDERED & REJECTED UN Pol Declaration HLM NCDs (09/2018) UN Resolution GH&FP (10/2018) WHO ‘Tackling NCDs’(BEST BUY) (2017) WHO Global High-Level Conference on NCDs (Montevideo Roadmap) (2017) WHO ‘Saving Lives, Spending Less’Report (05/2018) WHO Independent High-Level Commission on NCDs ‘Time To Deliver’ (06/2018) UN+WHO CONSIDERED & REJECTED UNPOPULAR

BERK OTHER MEX INEFFECTIVE MX Treasury contradicts modelling studies Y1-1.9%;Y2+1.9%;Y3+1.7% NHS obesity rates increased 2012-16 73% to 76% (greatest increase in women) MEX Cal from taxed bevs dropped 6 cal/day Cal from untaxed bevs increased 32 cal/day Net increase 26 cal per day BERK INEFFECTIVE NZIER (MOH) 47 studies – impact ‘weak’ 2016 Systematic Review – no evidence tax reduce pop weight permanently MGI – portion size and reform most effective OTHER

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES MX 63% of tax collected for low SES households Of these, 37% below poverty line Taxes take greatest share of income from low-income families REGRRESSIVE UK OBR – “taxes will raise inflation” - will raise cost of interest payments on index-linked payments 2018-19 = £1BN impact ‘18 UK SDIL projected £230M REVENUE/ INFLATION REGRESSIVE W/ UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES MX- 1,700 UK – 4k Philly – 1,190 SA – circa 60k JOBS

PPPs SOLUTION EDUCATION PORTFOLIO RENOVATION McKinsey Global Institute Greatest ROI (DALYS) 1. Portion Size 2. Reformulation PORTFOLIO RENOVATION Taxes don’t teach healthy lifestyles Focus on children and low SES/@risk groups Industry + NGOs + Govts EDUCATION SOLUTION PPPs eg sugar reduction pledges, school guidelines etc can fast track portfolio renovation agendas w/out blunt instrument like tax Private sector work in collaboration with NGOs, Govts. PPPs

Timeline Lorem Ipsum Dolor Thank You Geoff Parker Executive Director – ICBA APAC Regional Group CEO Australian Beverages Council +61 407 646 195 geoff@icba-net.org @TheGeoffParker @icba_apac Timeline Lorem Ipsum Dolor